February Manufacturing Sector Shows 'Rebound Signal'... Semiconductors, Shipbuilding, and Steel Lead the Way

Industrial Economy Expert Survey Results
Semiconductors and Mobile Phones Lead Export Sector Outlook Above Baseline
Automobile Sector Remains Exceptionally Weak

▲A researcher from Samsung Electronics System LSI Division is inspecting the production line at Samsung Electronics' system semiconductor production line. (Photo by Samsung Electronics)

There are forecasts that the domestic manufacturing sector will show a clear improvement trend next month.

According to the "Industrial Economy Expert Survey Results" released by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade on January 25, the manufacturing outlook PSI (Professional Survey Index) for February was recorded at 114, significantly exceeding the baseline of 100. The increase from the previous month was also notable at +10 points, reflecting strong expectations for a robust recovery in manufacturing.

This survey gathered responses from a total of 125 experts across 170 industries. For each category, responses are measured on a scale from 0 to 200, with 100 indicating no change from the previous month. Values closer to 200 indicate more respondents expecting an increase (improvement), while values closer to 0 indicate more expecting a decrease (deterioration).

The outlook PSI for domestic demand and exports were 108 and 113, respectively, both exceeding the baseline. The export category maintained a score above 100 for the fifth consecutive month, and both production level (108) and inventory (104) also surpassed 100, indicating improvements in supply-side indicators as well.

By industry, the ICT sector and equipment-heavy industries such as shipbuilding, machinery, and steel showed particularly notable improvements. The ICT sector's outlook PSI for February surged by 21 points from the previous month to 128.

In particular, semiconductors (161, +24 points) and mobile phones (120, +32 points) were identified as the sectors with the most significant rebounds and are expected to drive the overall improvement in business conditions.

The outlook PSI for the shipbuilding industry also exceeded the baseline at 107. The expansion of orders and rising ship prices since the end of last year appear to have influenced market sentiment. Steel (125, +42 points) also significantly surpassed the baseline, reflecting both the easing of cost factors and expectations for demand recovery.

However, the automobile sector's outlook PSI for February remained at 92, falling short of the baseline. This is interpreted as reflecting factors such as the slowdown in domestic demand, profitability concerns, and intensified global competition.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing status PSI for January was 104, a slight increase of 2 points from the previous month. Exports (103) maintained the baseline, while domestic demand (96) fell below 100 for the first time in five months. Inventory (108) turned to an increase for the first time in five months.

The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade stated, "Expectations for recovery in ICT-centered industries and improvement in equipment investment-related sectors were reflected in the February sentiment," adding, "Despite concerns over slowing domestic demand, the structure in which export improvement drives business conditions is likely to continue."