Committee to Discuss Medical School Enrollment Based on Projected Physician Shortage of 2,500 to 4,800

Fourth Health and Medical Policy Deliberation Committee Meeting Held

The government has projected that the future shortage of physicians will range between 2,500 and 4,800, and has decided to continue discussions regarding medical school enrollment quotas for 2027.

Taekwoo Kim, President of the Korean Medical Association, is attending the Health and Medical Policy Deliberation Committee held at the International Electronics Center in Seocho-gu, Seoul on the 20th, continuing the discussions. Ministry of Health and Welfare

The Ministry of Health and Welfare announced this on January 20, during the Health and Medical Policy Deliberation Committee meeting held at the International Electronics Center in Seocho-gu, Seoul.

At this meeting, the committee discussed all 12 alternative models for physician workforce supply and demand, which were presented by the Physician Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Committee. These models are combinations of various demand and supply models, including: the ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) base model reflecting time-series trends in medical demand; an ARIMA model reflecting changes in the future medical environment; an ARIMA model reflecting changes in health and medical policy; an ARIMA model reflecting both future environment and policy changes; as well as two composition models (Model 1 and Model 2). These six demand models were combined with two supply models (Supply Model 1 and Supply Model 2).

Through previous discussions, the committee has gradually specified the criteria for determining the scale of physician training, including: strengthening regional, essential, and public healthcare; considering changes in the future medical environment and health policy; ensuring the quality of medical education; and securing predictability and stability.

In this fourth meeting, the characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of each of the 12 models were discussed according to these criteria. As a result, it was decided to focus discussions on six of the twelve models, taking into account possible changes in the medical environment such as advances in medical technology and working conditions, as well as policy directions such as improvements in the healthcare delivery system.

Additionally, considering that public medical schools and medical schools in regions without such institutions may begin recruiting new students from 2030, the committee agreed to exclude 600 positions from the required workforce during the estimation period and to review the training scale for general medical schools accordingly.

The Ministry of Education also announced the results of its review of the educational conditions at 32 out of 40 medical schools, excluding the eight located in Seoul, focusing on faculty, educational facilities, and teaching hospitals. Each medical school was found to meet the legal requirements for faculty numbers, educational facilities, and teaching hospitals, and overall, educational conditions were reported to meet the standards for medical education accreditation.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Health and Welfare plans to hold a public expert forum on January 22 to gather social opinions regarding the increase in physician workforce. In the next committee meeting, the results of this forum and discussions on the educational environment for medical schools will be comprehensively considered as the discussions continue.

Minister of Health and Welfare Chung Eun-kyung stated, "We will promptly and thoroughly gather opinions from experts and various sectors of society so that the scale of physician training can be smoothly reflected in the 2027 university admissions process."