Gold and Silver Prices Soar, but Why Is Bitcoin Falling? [Why&Next]

Gold Surpasses $4,700, Silver Hits Record $93
Meanwhile, Bitcoin Drops to $90,000 Amid Recent Decline
"Decoupling Likely to Persist if Geopolitical Risks Continue"

Recently, a pronounced decoupling trend has emerged between gold, silver, and Bitcoin. In the past, when gold prices rose, Bitcoin tended to follow, showing a correlated movement. However, last year, while gold and silver surged significantly, Bitcoin remained sluggish, indicating signs of decoupling. Gold and silver, as representative safe-haven assets, have continued to rise in price amid geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainty. In contrast, Bitcoin, due to its volatility and other factors, has not yet been fully accepted as a safe-haven asset, leading to this decoupling trend. Experts predict that this decoupling will likely persist for the time being, especially as geopolitical risks remain in focus.

Last Year: Gold Up 64%, Silver Up 142% ... Bitcoin Down 6%

As of 9 a.m. on January 21, the international gold price (XAU/USD) stood at $4,778.65 per ounce. For the first time ever, gold prices surpassed the $4,700 mark the previous day. Similarly, the silver price (XAG/USD) was $94.8740 per ounce. Like gold, silver recently broke through $94, reaching an all-time high. In contrast, at the same time, Bitcoin was trading at $88,400, down 4.60% from 24 hours earlier. On January 19, Bitcoin was at $92,000, but it fell below $90,000 the previous day and has continued its downward trend.

Historically, gold, silver, and Bitcoin showed correlated movements because they were considered alternative assets to the US dollar. Sim Subin, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, explained, "The past simultaneous rise of gold and Bitcoin was driven more by demand for alternative assets to the dollar rather than by their safe-haven status. The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy increased concerns about the value of fiat currencies, benefiting both assets." Yang Hyunkyung, a researcher at iM Securities, added, "In an environment of rising geopolitical and fiscal risks, gold has become more preferred because it carries no issuer risk. Bitcoin, which also has no issuer risk and can serve as a means of evading sanctions, has built a narrative as 'digital gold.'"

However, a decoupling trend began to appear starting last year. In 2025, international gold and silver prices soared by 64% and 142%, respectively, while Bitcoin fell by 6%. Notably, compared to its peak in early October last year, Bitcoin dropped by over 30%. Bitcoin, which ended last year at around $88,000, showed a gradual recovery this year, climbing to $96,000, but fell back to $92,000 after US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on Europe related to Greenland.

Differences in Credibility and Supply-Demand Structure Separate the Fates of Gold and Bitcoin

Researcher Sim stated, "From the perspective of financial market participants, there is a structural difference in credibility between gold and Bitcoin, which is the most crucial factor behind the recent decoupling. As uncertainty surrounding additional Federal Reserve rate cuts increased, the decoupling between gold and Bitcoin began. Although the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has established Bitcoin as an institutional investment asset, its higher volatility and shorter history compared to gold remain significant concerns. In particular, during price declines, the potential for Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies to sell is perceived as a supply risk." He added, "Moreover, as previous Bitcoin bull cycles tended to end about 18 months after each halving, there is growing caution about the end of the current upward phase."

Hong Jinhyun, a researcher at Samsung Securities, noted, "The recent decoupling is because demand for gold and silver has increased, while Bitcoin has undergone a correction. The reasons for rising gold demand and prices include hedging against risks in the US dollar and US asset system, rebalancing of bank reserve assets, and geopolitical risk premiums. Bitcoin's weakness is due to sharply deteriorating sentiment since October last year, which has spread a correction mood. Based on the crypto cycle, a sideways trend is expected this year."

The fragile supply-demand structure of Bitcoin is also cited as a background for the decoupling. Researcher Yang explained, "The qualitative difference in supply-demand structure is one of the main reasons for the decoupling between gold and Bitcoin. While institutional funds have flowed into Bitcoin since the introduction of ETFs, making it more of an institutional asset, its supply-demand structure remains fragile. A significant portion of Bitcoin demand comes from individual investors, hedge funds, trading-oriented institutions, and ETF funds, all of whom are sensitive to price volatility, liquidity, and investor sentiment. Bitcoin ETF funds, in particular, tend to flow in and out rapidly, focusing on relative returns, rebalancing, and changes in the macro environment, rather than long-term holding."

'Gold and Silver as Defensive Assets vs. Bitcoin as a Growth Asset' Perception Strengthens

Due to ongoing geopolitical risks and other factors, the decoupling trend between gold, silver, and Bitcoin is expected to continue for the time being. Researcher Sim explained, "Basically, as long as geopolitical risks persist, the decoupling trend between gold and Bitcoin is likely to continue. While gold is being highlighted for its central bank demand and traditional safe-haven characteristics, Bitcoin is being emphasized for its volatility and investment asset nature."

An official from the virtual asset industry commented, "In the short term, the decoupling trend between gold and Bitcoin is likely to persist, as gold is increasingly seen as a defensive asset and Bitcoin as a growth asset. However, in the medium to long term, if global currency confidence weakens or financial system risks resurface, it is possible that Bitcoin could once again move in tandem with gold. Ultimately, the key will be how much Bitcoin is recognized as an 'alternative store of value' rather than just a 'risky asset.'"