'Boosted by AI Boom'... Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research Raises Taiwan's Growth Forecast to 4.14%

Last Year’s Growth Rate Revised to 7.43%
AI Boom and Reciprocal Tariffs Drive Change

Taiwan’s national research institute has forecasted the country’s economic growth rate for this year to be in the 4% range.

According to the Liberty Times and other sources on January 20, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) revised its projection for Taiwan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate this year to 4.14% at the ‘2026 Economic Outlook Forum.’ This is 1.59 percentage points higher than the 2.55% forecast made in October last year.

CIER also revised Taiwan’s economic growth rate for last year to 7.43%, up by 1.98 percentage points from the previous estimate for the same period. CIER explained that the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and reciprocal tariffs had an impact on these figures.

This year, Taiwan’s quarterly growth rates are expected to be 7.36%, 3.28%, 3.10%, and 3.11% for the first to fourth quarters, respectively. The economic growth rate for 2027 is projected to be 2.95%.

The export volume, a key driver of economic growth this year, is expected to reach 760.8 billion dollars (approximately 1.124 trillion Korean won), representing a 24.24% increase from last year’s 640.7 billion dollars (about 947 trillion Korean won).

Additionally, CIER forecasted the global economic growth rate for this year at 2.69%, which is 0.13 percentage points lower than last year’s 2.82%. The institute also estimated that inflationary pressures will ease due to the stabilization of international commodity prices and falling oil prices.

CIER President Lien Shengming stated, “This forecast does not reflect the results of reciprocal tariff negotiations with the United States,” and added that the impact of tariffs on Taiwan’s economy will be analyzed in the future.