Chinese economic experts have predicted that last year’s economic growth rate in China will reach the government’s target of 5%.
Li Chang'an, a professor at the China Institute for Opening-up Economy under the University of International Business and Economics, said in an interview with the Global Times, an English-language newspaper affiliated with the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party of China, on January 18, 2026, “Despite various difficulties, China will achieve the annual growth target of around 5% for 2025.”
Previously, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that the cumulative gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for the first to third quarters had reached 5.2%.
In addition, China Huaxia Times, citing Liu Xiaoguang of the National Academy of Development and Strategy at Renmin University, reported that “China’s economic growth rate reached 4.5% in the fourth quarter of last year, so on an annual basis, it will achieve 5%.” Researcher Liu also predicted that next year’s growth rate would gradually recover to 5.1% by the end of the year, resulting in an annual rate of 4.8%.
However, concerns remain about a possible slowdown in China’s economic growth. In a recent survey conducted by AFP, the median forecast for last year’s economic growth rate in China among analysts was 4.9%. The median refers to the value in the middle when all survey results are lined up in order.
Sarah Tan, an analyst at Moody’s Analytics, commented that while China may report a figure close enough to declare “target achieved,” the composition of China’s economic growth is highly unbalanced and the official figures mask the fragile sentiment on the ground.
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