Aircraft Carrier Just Deployed... Trump Signals Military Intervention in Iran [Current Affairs Show]

Aircraft Carrier Strike Group Begins Moving from the South China Sea
Even Middle Eastern Allies Urge Against Military Intervention

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'So Jongseop’s Current Affairs Show'

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop

■ Director: Producer Lee Kyungdo

■ Guest: Reporter Lee Hyunwoo

After U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at possible military intervention in Iran, the deployment of a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East has significantly heightened military tensions in the region. However, launching an airstrike against Iran, which has far greater military capabilities than Venezuela, would be difficult with the forces currently available, and the actual benefits for the United States may not be as substantial as expected. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether the U.S. will proceed with military intervention.

Aircraft Carrier Strike Group Begins Move from South China Sea... Trump Faces Difficult Decisions

On the 9th (local time), anti-government protesters are demonstrating in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Photo by AP Yonhap News

According to foreign media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 15th (local time), the USS Abraham Lincoln, a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier that had been stationed in the South China Sea, has begun moving toward the Middle East. It is expected to arrive in the region in about a week.

Since October of last year, there have been no U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups immediately available for operations in the Middle East and Africa. The U.S. operates 11 aircraft carriers worldwide, but the two strike groups previously stationed in the Middle East were redeployed to the Caribbean in October last year and have not returned since. These carriers were involved in the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and have continued missions near the Caribbean.

There is little flexibility in carrier deployment in other regions as well. In the Asia-Pacific, forces are tied up with the Taiwan Strait issue and containing China, while in the Atlantic and Northern Europe, monitoring Russia is the top priority. Ultimately, deploying a large-scale carrier strike group to the Middle East would require the return of the forces in the Caribbean, which is also expected to take considerable time.

Some interpret the order to withdraw U.S. troops stationed in Qatar as a move to use these forces for an airstrike on Iran, but this scenario is considered unlikely. The approximately 10,000 U.S. troops stationed in Qatar are there for defensive purposes, and if they were deployed for operations against Iran, it would inevitably provoke opposition from the Qatari government. Amid these military constraints, President Trump’s hardline statements are seen both inside and outside the United States as aimed more at achieving political pressure than at prompting immediate military action.

Iran Gains Advantage in Nuclear Negotiations... Allies Urge Restraint on Military Intervention

AP Yonhap News

The situation inside Iran is severe. Anti-government protests have spread to 187 cities nationwide, and reports indicate that the death toll has reached several thousand. However, within the United States, there is a cautious view regarding the possibility that this crisis will immediately lead to regime collapse.

The protests were triggered by skyrocketing prices and currency issues, with the main participants reportedly being market merchants. Since there is no clear regime change force or alternative political group emerging, it is uncertain whether the unrest will lead to the overthrow of the system.

Iran’s political structure consists of a dual system, with both an executive government and a cleric-centered theocracy. Unlike changes in the government responsible for public welfare, it is still difficult to determine whether the movement will expand to challenge the theocratic system itself. This is one reason why the Trump administration does not view Iran as a target for “regime change” in the way it did with Venezuela.

Iran’s large territory and population, as well as its standing army of over 700,000, mean that far more military resources would be needed for intervention. Another variable is that the Iranian government has recently shown signs of being willing to accept the nuclear negotiation terms demanded by the United States. By indicating a willingness to not only halt nuclear development but also restrict long-range missile development, Iran has led the U.S. to favor a diplomatic solution over military intervention. Opposition from Middle Eastern allies, such as Saudi Arabia, is also having an impact, with these countries reportedly warning that an airstrike on Iran could lead to even greater chaos.

From the perspective of U.S. interests, Iran is also seen as different from Venezuela. Venezuela is geographically closer to the U.S. and its heavy crude oil production has benefited American oil companies, but Iran’s distance and the nature of its crude oil make it unlikely to provide enough benefit to justify military intervention.

In addition, political calculations ahead of the November midterm elections are at play. Achieving a diplomatic breakthrough in the Iran nuclear negotiations is seen as more advantageous for President Trump than launching a large-scale military intervention. As a result, the prevailing view is that the U.S. is more likely to prioritize concluding the nuclear negotiations and then monitor the situation before making any decisions about military action against Iran.