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From Hijab to Cigarette Lighters: Iran's Anti-Government Protests Intensify... Is the Theocracy Collapsing?

Iranian Women Break Taboos Amid Anti-Government Protests
Current Protests Sparked by Economic Hardship, Thousands of Casualties
Khamenei Regime Faces Its Greatest Crisis, Will the US Intervene?

Recently, videos of women lighting cigarettes with photos of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei have been widely shared on social networking services (SNS). As numerous photos and videos breaking taboos in Iranian society are posted, the current protests are intensifying. In Iran, blasphemy against the Supreme Leader is considered a serious crime punishable by death, and women smoking in public is also strictly prohibited under Islamic law.


As of January 18, the anti-government protests in Iran have entered their 21st day and are spreading uncontrollably. Citizens who initially took to the streets to demand relief from economic hardships are now directly targeting the theocratic system that forms the foundation of the Iranian regime.


From Hijab to Cigarette Lighters: Iran's Anti-Government Protests Intensify... Is the Theocracy Collapsing? Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei held a press conference in Tehran on June 28, 2024 (local time) after casting his vote in the presidential election. On this day, Iran is conducting a by-election to select a successor to former President Ebrahim Raisi, who recently died in a helicopter crash. Photo by AP Yonhap News

The main cause of the protests is the worsening economic hardship. The Iranian economy has been suffering from high inflation for three consecutive years. As of October 2025, Iran's inflation rate rose to 48.6%. It remained consistently high at 44.6% in 2023 and 32.5% in 2024. The exchange rate of the Iranian rial plunged to a record low of 1.42 million rials per US dollar at the end of last year. Compared to around 32,000 rials per dollar at the time of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) with the United States and other Western countries in 2015, the currency has lost value to about one forty-fourth of its worth in roughly a decade.


After toppling the Pahlavi dynasty in the 1979 revolution, Iran established an even stricter theocratic system. Theocracy means 'rule by God,' where professional religious leaders govern on behalf of the divine. Under Islamic law, the Supreme Leader, together with the Guardian Council, controls the executive, legislative, and judicial branches. Even if someone is elected president, their authority is limited without the Supreme Leader's approval. In practice, this is a dictatorship.


From Hijab to Cigarette Lighters: Iran's Anti-Government Protests Intensify... Is the Theocracy Collapsing? On January 10 (local time), a scene from the protest in Mashhad, northern Iran, spreading on social networking services (SNS). Photo by AFP Yonhap News

Since coming to power in 1989, the Khamenei regime has solidified its dictatorship, but since last year, it has been assessed to be facing its greatest crisis. With Trump's return to office, even stronger sanctions were imposed on Iran, and the complete blockade of crude oil and natural gas exports plunged the Iranian economy into difficulty. In June of last year, Israel launched concentrated attacks on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite unit tasked with protecting Iran's theocratic regime, which led to the collapse of what was considered Khamenei's strongest power base.


With thousands of casualties resulting from the current protests, attention is focused on whether the United States will intervene. Although it has become known that the Iranian government has suspended executions of anti-government protesters, and no immediate US military intervention has occurred, the possibility of US military action remains. At a regular briefing on January 15 (local time), White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated, "The President and his staff are closely monitoring the situation, and all options remain on the table for the President."


© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.


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