Middle East Expert: "Iran's Death Toll May Reach 6,000...The Coming Week Is Critical"

Middle East Expert Seo Sanghyun of Korea University
"Reports Emerge of Revolutionary Guard Engaging in Targeted Shootings"

There are growing observations that the death toll from anti-government protests in Iran may reach as high as several thousand. Some experts predict that Iran now stands at a crossroads between civil war and revolution, with the coming week expected to be the most critical period.

Seo Sanghyun, a research fellow at the Asiatic Research Institute at Korea University and an expert on the Middle East, said on CBS Radio's 'Park Sungtae's News Show' on the 13th, "Human rights organizations in the United States, Norway, and other countries are using HUMINT (human intelligence analysis) to estimate the death toll in Iran," adding, "The Iranian authorities have announced that the number of deaths is between 500 and 600, but in reality, it is believed to be as high as 6,000."

On the 9th (local time), amid the spread of anti-government protests in Tehran, Iran, a photo showing protesters gathered in front of a burning vehicle was released on social media. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

He continued, "This is about ten times the official figure," and added, "Since the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was fully deployed to suppress the protests, there have been reports of deliberate shootings, indicating a brutal crackdown."

Regarding the causes of the protests, he said, "The biggest problem was the economy. In the past, Iran had the most robust economic structure in the Middle East, but after the 1979 coup and the establishment of the current theocratic regime, it was severely damaged. The inflation rate is over 50% annually, and the currency issue is also significant. The protests that began at the end of last year were driven by economic grievances, especially over rising prices."

He also noted that public trust in the theocratic government has been shattered. The most significant event was last year's airstrikes by Israel and the United States. In the past, Iranians trusted the government for national security, but it was revealed that this trust was unfounded. He pointed out, "When Israel and the United States launched airstrikes against Iran, the air defense system did not function at all."

Seo outlined three possible scenarios for Iran's future. The first is a prolonged civil war, similar to what happened in Syria. He explained, "Iran is home to various ethnic minorities, and if they turn to armed protests, the situation could escalate into a civil war." The second scenario is the possibility of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or the military toppling the current theocratic government in a coup. The third is the possibility of a revolution triggered by support for the protesters from the United States or Israel.

He added, "Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, will have to choose between exile and a hardline crackdown," and assessed, "The role of foreign countries such as the United States could influence this decision. The coming week will be the most critical period."