[Inside Chodong] Musk Says "Don't Go to Medical School," But Are We Just Fighting Over Numbers?

Debate over the 2027 medical school enrollment quota has reignited. The Ministry of Health and Welfare, based on the results produced by the Physician Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Committee (Estimation Committee) at the end of last year, is holding weekly Health and Medical Policy Review Committee meetings with the plan to finalize the scale of the increase before the Lunar New Year holiday in February. The government emphasizes that this time, it will present the medical school quota increase based on "scientific and objective evidence."

However, the medical community remains skeptical. There are ongoing objections that the solutions for medical service gaps and the methods for calculating physician shortages are irrational, raising concerns that conflict between the government and the medical profession may resurface. The Estimation Committee projected that the physician shortage in 2040 will range from 5,015 to a maximum of 11,136. These figures are not significantly different from those cited in studies used by the previous administration to justify an increase of 2,000 students.

Controversy over the estimation methodology also persists. Critics have questioned from the outset whether statistical techniques such as the ARIMA model, which analyzes historical data patterns to predict future values, can adequately reflect the rapidly changing healthcare environment. Nevertheless, the government states, "We respect the estimation results, but will make a policy decision considering the public's right to life and health." This is essentially a declaration that political judgment will be added on top of scientific judgment. In this process, the government listed factors such as strengthening regional, essential, and public healthcare, demographic changes, technological advancements, working conditions, and the educational environment and quality of medical schools as considerations. However, there was no explanation of how these complex variables are converted into quota numbers or what weighting is applied to each factor.

Recently, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, mentioned Tesla's humanoid robot 'Optimus' and claimed, "Within three years, robots will surpass the best surgeons. Going to medical school could become an expensive hobby." While this is an exaggerated statement that ignores issues of human judgment and responsibility, it prompts us to reflect on whether the ongoing debate over the "appropriate number of physicians" is, in fact, outdated. We must question whether the supply and demand for healthcare personnel can be calculated simply as an extension of the past, or whether approaching the issue in this way is fundamentally flawed. Artificial intelligence (AI) and digital healthcare-such as image interpretation, diagnostic support, telemedicine, and automated record systems-are already transforming productivity in the medical field. Yet, the Estimation Committee predicted only a 6% increase in physician productivity due to AI, which suggests that the pace of technological advancement and international cases have not been sufficiently considered.

Furthermore, considering the current administration's initiatives such as establishing new public medical schools and introducing a regional physician system, the current debate over increasing medical school enrollment has become even more complex. This is not simply a matter of adjusting numbers, but a fundamental redesign of the entire system for training and deploying medical personnel. Despite this, the government's approach still clings to the simplest solution: "How many more students should we admit?"

The decision on the 2027 medical school enrollment quota is a critical issue that will determine the direction and sustainability of South Korea's healthcare system for decades to come, extending far beyond college admissions. In the context of population decline, an irreversible increase in the number of physicians is highly likely to translate directly into a greater financial burden on the national health insurance system for future generations. As seen in the "doubling" of the 2024 and 2025 admissions, increasing the quota without expanding educational infrastructure will inevitably lead to a decline in educational quality. In the absence of a concrete roadmap, the logic of "increasing because it is needed" is irresponsible. What the public truly wants is not simply a greater number of doctors, but a reliable healthcare system where they can receive proper treatment anytime and anywhere.