"Trump's Military Operations: What's the Next Target?"... Controversy Grows Over 'War Betting'

Polymarket Sees Surge in Bets on US Military Actions
Launches Products Naming Colombia and Cuba as Next Potential Targets

The online betting market is heating up over which country will become the next target of a US military operation. Following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, there has been growing interest in bets related to US diplomatic and military actions, while ethical concerns about these activities are also being raised.

The post titled "Mess Around and You'll Get Hurt" uploaded on the official White House social media on the day Maduro was arrested. White House Instagram

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 7th (local time), Polymarket, a future prediction betting platform, recently launched betting products that identify Colombia and Cuba as potential targets for the next US military operation.

Interest among users in prediction bets related to US military actions is also rising. For example, the probability of Iran's Supreme Leader stepping down, as predicted by one of the bets, surged to 36% recently for Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei stepping down by June 30 this year. This figure had remained below 20% before the US arrested President Maduro, indicating a significant increase. There is also growing user interest in bets on whether the US will annex Greenland by the end of the year.

Polymarket is a prediction market platform for a wide range of events, including politics, the economy, and international affairs, where participants place bets on outcomes and winners take the pot. Recently, more than 10.7 million dollars (approximately 15.5 billion won) was wagered on the question of "When will the US invade Venezuela?" on Polymarket. Of this, over 6.09 million dollars was bet on "an invasion by January 31," 1.87 million dollars on "an invasion by March 31," and 60,000 dollars on "an invasion by December 31."

Graph related to Maduro's ousting on Polymarket, where the stock price jumped to $1 (100%) as the US military arrested Nicolas Maduro. Polymarket

However, Polymarket determined that the US special operations mission to arrest and extradite President Maduro did not meet the definition of an "invasion" in a military sense, and therefore refused to pay out the winnings. Although many participants are protesting this decision, some analysts believe that the controversy itself has heightened interest in betting markets focused on the Trump administration's military and diplomatic policies.

Prediction operators under the supervision of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are prohibited from offering products that go against the public interest, such as those involving war, terrorism, or assassination. However, since Polymarket operates overseas, it is not subject to US regulatory oversight. Officially, US users are also banned from using the platform, but it is reportedly impossible to prevent access via virtual private networks (VPNs).

Some critics argue that placing bets on war is ethically problematic. In fact, Polymarket has hosted numerous bets predicting the course of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine Gaza conflict. There are also concerns that insiders responsible for executing military actions could exploit these bets for unfair gain. However, Polymarket maintains that harnessing collective intelligence is necessary to provide accurate and unbiased predictions on socially significant events.