[June 3 Local Elections] ⑤ Busan Shaken by the 'Jeon Jaesoo Factor'... Will a Second Democratic Mayor Emerge?

Traditionally a Conservative Stronghold
Ruling Bloc Focuses on Key Issues Like Ministry Relocation
People Power Party's Park Hyungjoon, Incumbent Mayor of Busan
Kim Doeup, Lee Heonseung, Cho Kyungtae, Park Sooyoung
Ruling Bloc's Jeon Jaesoo, Former Minister of Oceans and Fisheries
Lee Jaesung, Park Jaeho, Choi Inho, Kim Youngchun
Cho Kuk and Ha Jungwoo Also Considered as Potential Candidates

Busan, South Korea’s second-largest city and the largest city in the Yeongnam region, is considered a major battleground in the upcoming 9th nationwide local elections scheduled for June 3, alongside Seoul. Traditionally a stronghold for conservative parties, Busan has recently seen the Lee Jaemyung administration push forward key local issues, such as the relocation of the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, raising questions about whether a major political shift could occur.

Historical Results

Throughout the history of Busan mayoral elections, a candidate from the Democratic Party or its affiliates has only won once: in 2018, during the 7th popularly elected term (Oh Keodon). In the first direct election in 1995, former Mayor Moon Jeongsoo (Democratic Liberal Party) won with 51.4% of the vote. In the second and third terms, former Mayor Ahn Sangyoung (Grand National Party) succeeded in being re-elected with 45.1% and 63.7% of the votes, respectively. In the 2004 by-election, former Mayor Heo Namsik (Grand National Party) was elected with 62.2% and went on to win re-election and a third term. In the 6th term, former Mayor Suh Byungsoo (Saenuri Party) was elected with 50.6%. The 7th mayoral election saw Oh Keodon, who had built up name recognition through four attempts, become the first to win under the Democratic Party banner with 55.2%. However, after his disgraceful resignation, the People Power Party reclaimed the mayoralty. Mayor Park Hyungjoon was elected in the by-election with 62.6% and again in the 8th mayoral election in 2022 with 66.3%.

Who Are the Potential Candidates?

For the People Power Party, incumbent Mayor Park is seeking a third term. Within the National Assembly, lawmakers Kim Do-eup, who recently resigned as Policy Committee Chair, as well as Lee Heonseung, Cho Kyungtae, and Park Sooyoung, are being mentioned. Outside the Assembly, former Mayor Suh is also considered a potential candidate.

For the Democratic Party, former Minister of Oceans and Fisheries Jeon Jaesoo is seen as the leading contender. He is the only district-elected lawmaker from Busan and is regarded as the most competitive candidate in multiple opinion polls. However, lingering controversy over allegations of receiving money from the Unification Church remains a variable. Lee Jaesung, head of the Busan Democratic Party, has officially announced his candidacy, while former lawmakers Park Jaeho and Choi Inho, as well as former Minister of Oceans and Fisheries Kim Youngchun, are also being considered. Within the ruling bloc, there is also speculation about Cho Kuk, leader of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, who is originally from Busan, and Ha Jungwoo, Senior Presidential Secretary for AI Future Planning.

Public Opinion Trends

According to recent opinion polls (Busan Ilbo·KSOI, JoongAng Ilbo·KStat Research, Kookje Shinmun·Realmeter), former lawmaker Jeon is showing strength among the ruling bloc, while party leader Cho is also making his presence felt. Among the opposition, Mayor Park is showing strong support.

In both multi-candidate and head-to-head matchups, former lawmaker Jeon led Mayor Park by a margin outside the margin of error. In a hypothetical two-way race, Jeon led Park by 7 to 12 percentage points. If party leader Cho runs as a pan-ruling bloc candidate, the race is expected to be very close. According to the KStat Research poll, Mayor Park and party leader Cho were in a close contest at 32% to 30%, within the margin of error.

Characteristics of the Busan Election

Although Busan is classified as a conservative stronghold, candidates from the Democratic Party and its affiliates have been narrowing the vote gap, turning the city into a competitive region. Political observers note that even within the conservative camp, there is a preference for relatively moderate conservative candidates.

Historically, most Busan mayors have been administrative officials or local politicians rather than prominent national figures. For over 20 years, from former Mayor Ahn Sangyoung, who began his public service career in Seoul, to former Mayor Heo Namsik, who was a Busan city official, the city has been led by those with bureaucratic backgrounds. Oh Keodon also started his public service career in Busan, serving as Deputy Mayor for Administrative Affairs and Acting Mayor. Mayor Park Hyungjoon has served as a National Assembly member, Senior Presidential Secretary for Political Affairs, and is a former professor at Dong-A University in Busan.

<Opinion Polls>

- KSOI (commissioned by Busan Ilbo, surveyed men and women aged 18 and older residing in Busan on January 2-3, conducted via wireless automated response system (ARS), with a sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level)
- KStat Research (commissioned by JoongAng Ilbo, surveyed men and women aged 18 and older residing in Busan on December 28-30, conducted via wireless phone interviews, with a sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level)
- Realmeter (commissioned by Kookje Shinmun, surveyed men and women aged 18 and older residing in Busan on December 27-28, conducted via wireless automated response system (ARS), with a sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level)
*For more details on the opinion polls, please refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.