[Why&Next] Venezuela at a Standstill... What Is Trump's Real Intention?

The Motives Behind Maduro's Arrest: A Bold Move
Securing Hegemony and Oil Interests in the Western Hemisphere... Strengthening Internal Cohesion
Venezuela's Power Broker Cabello: If He Changes Course, U.S. Control Could Slip Away

The Donald Trump administration has launched a military operation against the Nicolas Maduro regime in Venezuela, capturing President Maduro and bringing him before a U.S. court. The United States has established an interim government led by Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as acting president and declared that it will temporarily run Venezuela. However, the country's future remains uncertain. Internal power struggles, combined with complex entanglements over Western Hemisphere hegemony, narcotics, and oil interests, have made the situation highly unpredictable.

On January 3 (local time), U.S. forces launched "Operation Absolute Resolve" against Venezuela, arresting President Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores at a safe house in Caracas, the capital. Since January 5, a U.S. court has been conducting trials on four criminal charges, including conspiracy to commit narco-terrorism. This marks the Trump administration's execution of threats previously made against President Maduro, who had refused to step down.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who was arrested by U.S. authorities, is heading to court in New York on the 5th (local time). Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

U.S. Invasion of Venezuela: Hegemony, Oil, or Narcotics?

There is much debate over the motives behind President Trump's bold move to arrest President Maduro at the very start of the new year.

The prevailing view is that the United States, prioritizing the Western Hemisphere, is taking steps to further strengthen American hegemony in the region, following what is being called "Donroeism"-Trump's version of Monroe Doctrine-era American isolationism. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) described the arrest of President Maduro as a "Trumpian interpretation" of the Monroe Doctrine. In fact, after the attack on Venezuela, President Trump sent warning messages to Colombia and Cuba as well. Previous remarks about the annexation of Canada or the reclamation of operational rights over the Panama Canal were also made with the aim of strengthening U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere.

In the National Security Strategy (NSS) announced on December 5, the Trump administration stated, "The United States will reaffirm and strengthen the Monroe Doctrine to restore our dominance in the Western Hemisphere and to protect vital geographic access to our homeland and the entire region."

On January 5, the U.S. State Department posted an image on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), featuring a photo of President Trump with the caption, "This is our hemisphere."

Oil interests are also cited as a major reason. Venezuela is known to have the world's largest proven oil reserves. According to the WSJ, about a month ago, President Trump sent a significant message to U.S. oil company executives, telling them to "get ready." He also referenced the nationalization of oil fields under the previous Hugo Chavez administration, which resulted in losses for American companies, stating his desire to reclaim those interests. On January 3, he remarked that U.S. oil companies would enter Venezuela, restore its oil infrastructure, and profit from it.

According to Bloomberg, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright is scheduled to meet with major oil company executives on January 8 to discuss issues related to Venezuela.

President Trump has previously cited narcotics as a reason for targeting the Maduro regime and attacking Venezuelan vessels. President Maduro is currently facing charges in U.S. court for conspiracy to traffic narcotics. However, the share of Venezuelan-origin drugs in the U.S. market is relatively small. Rather than Venezuela's narcotics being the direct cause, it appears more related to the Trump administration's core agenda of anti-immigration and curbing drug inflows.

With the midterm elections approaching, suspicions surrounding sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and low approval ratings due to inflation and other issues, taking a hardline stance on immigration and narcotics by targeting Venezuela could help solidify support among Trump's base and within the Republican Party. The "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) faction, which has supported isolationist policies under the banner of "America First," also appears favorable toward this military action.

However, if U.S. involvement in Venezuela becomes prolonged, criticism will be unavoidable. Some warn that the U.S. should remember and be wary of past crises in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Venezuela's Interim Government on a Tightrope: What Lies Ahead?

After taking control of Venezuela, the United States surprised many by partnering not with opposition figures such as Maria Corina Machado or Edmundo Gonzalez-the actual winner of the 2024 presidential election-but with Vice President Rodriguez, the second-in-command under Maduro. She also serves as Minister of Petroleum, a key position, and is the sister of Jorge Rodriguez, the Speaker of the National Assembly. According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration's decision to work with Vice President Rodriguez instead of opposition leader Machado was influenced in part by her sway over the oil industry.

Vice President Rodriguez has promised cooperation with the United States, while at the same time maintaining a dual stance by referring to the ousted Maduro as "the only president" and "a hero." This precarious balancing act is seen as an effort to appease public sentiment and the strongly anti-U.S. military. According to the WSJ, she secretly conveyed her willingness to cooperate with the U.S. after President Maduro's arrest.

However, analysts say that the future direction of Venezuelan politics depends less on Vice President Rodriguez and more on Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, a hardliner with control over the military. Cabello is already wanted in the U.S. on drug trafficking charges, with a $25 million bounty on his head, making him a difficult target for U.S. outreach.

Given that he witnessed Maduro's ouster, it is widely believed that Minister Cabello will be reluctant to openly defy the United States. For now, he appears to be cooperating with the Rodriguez interim government. However, the possibility of a change of heart cannot be ruled out, and if he were to oust Vice President Rodriguez, Venezuela could slip from American control. The WSJ reports that rumors are spreading locally that Minister Cabello is seeking to seize power.

Geoff Ramsey, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, stated that Minister Cabello has always coveted power, adding, "It is hard to imagine any administration getting close to him. Delcy may have Trump's ear, but she does not hold the guns. And Cabello knows that."