Korea Investment & Securities Raises This Year's KOSPI Target from 4,600 to 5,650

On January 7, Korea Investment & Securities raised its 2026 KOSPI target from the previous 4,600 to 5,650.

Kim Daejun, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, stated in the report titled "2026 KOSPI Target: Upward Revision" released on this day, "The reason for raising the index outlook is that corporate earnings, especially in the semiconductor sector, are surging."

Kim explained, "The 12-month forward earnings per share (EPS) for KOSPI is confirmed at 435, which is 28.8% higher than the projection made in October 2025. I applied this EPS growth rate to calculate the new target. The appropriate price-to-earnings ratio (PER) used for the target estimate is 13 times." He added that this also takes into account dividend increases. Kim further commented, "If we combine the government's stock market stimulus measures and improved investor sentiment, PER expansion is a fully plausible scenario."

Unlike before, a lower bound for the index is also suggested. He said, "If the currently expected EPS projection is revised down by 6% and the PER multiple is reduced to 10 times, the lower bound for the index would be 4,100. Thanks to increased earnings compared to the past, even if KOSPI shows a bearish trend, it is expected to move at least above the 4,000 level." Accordingly, this year's revised KOSPI band is 4,100 to 5,650.

The index trajectory remains unchanged, with an expected rise in the first half of the year and a sideways movement in the second half. Kim assessed, "The drivers that can lead the market going forward will not change. The anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts and Korea's fiscal expansion policy in the first half will proceed as expected," adding, "This could have a positive impact on the growth of sectors outside of IT as well." He continued, "Based on this, I recommend increasing investment allocations in the first half," and emphasized, "It is important to pay attention to sectors where the earnings momentum continues alongside semiconductors."