[June 3 Local Elections] ③ Fierce Race for Gyeonggi Governor: Ruling Party’s Kim Dongyeon Faces Multiple Challengers... Opposition’s Yoo Seungmin a Key Variable

Kim Dongyeon Likely to Seek Re-election for Ruling Party
Yang Gidae and Kim Byungjoo Announce Bids
Choo Mi-ae, Han Junho, and Kwon Chilsung Also in Contention
Kim Sungwon, Kim Eunhye, and Ahn Cheolsoo Among Opposition Candidates
Attent

The Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election, which has the largest number of eligible voters nationwide, serves as a barometer of public sentiment in the Seoul metropolitan area and acts as a prelude to the upcoming general and presidential elections. As such, high-profile politicians have made significant efforts to secure the position of Gyeonggi Governor. There was a jinx that former Gyeonggi Governors were weak in presidential elections, but this changed when President Lee Jaemyung, a former Gyeonggi Governor, was elected in the 21st presidential election.

Historical Results

Since the introduction of the local autonomy system, candidates from the Democratic Party and its predecessors have won the Gyeonggi governorship three times (Lim Changryeol, Lee Jaemyung, and Kim Dongyeon), while candidates from the People Power Party and its predecessors have won five times (Lee Inje, Sohn Hakkyu, Kim Moonsu twice, and Nam Kyungpil).

In 1995, the first directly elected Gyeonggi Governor was Lee Inje of the Democratic Liberal Party, who won with 40.5% of the vote. He was succeeded by Lim Changryeol of the National Congress for New Politics, who was elected with 54.3%. After the arrest of former President Kim Daejung's son, Sohn Hakkyu of the Grand National Party won with 58.3%. Kim Moonsu of the Grand National Party was elected consecutively for the fourth (59.6%) and fifth (52.2%) terms, becoming the first directly elected governor to serve consecutive terms. During his tenure, the successful attraction of Samsung Semiconductor to Pyeongtaek and the promotion of the Great Train Express (GTX) in the metropolitan area contributed to the continued strength of the conservative party. Nam Kyungpil of the Saenuri Party became the sixth directly elected governor with 50.4% of the vote. However, in the seventh gubernatorial election, Lee Jaemyung won with 56.4%, allowing the Democratic Party to reclaim the governorship after 20 years. In the eighth term, Kim Dongyeon (49.0%) defeated Kim Eunhye of the People Power Party, once again delivering victory to the Democratic Party.

Who Are the Potential Candidates?

Within the Democratic Party, the incumbent Governor Kim Dongyeon is considered a strong contender for re-election, but the internal competition is complex. Following former lawmaker Yang Gidae, Assemblyman Kim Byungjoo has also announced his candidacy. Assemblywoman Choo Mi-ae, the most senior member of the party (six terms) and chair of the National Assembly Legislation and Judiciary Committee, as well as Assemblyman Han Junho, who recently resigned from his position as a supreme council member, are both expected to declare their candidacies soon. Other potential candidates include Assemblymen Kwon Chilsung and Yeom Taeyoung.

The People Power Party has yet to see a clear frontrunner emerge. Potential candidates from within the National Assembly include Assemblymen Kim Sungwon, Kim Eunhye, Song Seokjun, and Ahn Cheolsoo. Outside the Assembly, former lawmakers Yoo Seungmin, Won Yoochul, and Shim Jaecheol, former Governor Kim Moonsu, former Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Heeryong, and former party leader Han Donghoon are being mentioned. In particular, the candidacy of former Assemblyman Yoo Seungmin, who consistently leads conservative polls, is a key variable. There is also interest in whether Lee Junseok, leader of the Reform New Party, will run, and whether the People Power Party and the Reform New Party will form a unified candidacy.

Polling Trends

According to recent polls (conducted by Joongbu Ilbo and Embrain Public, OhmyNews and Realmeter, JoongAng Ilbo and Kstat Research), Governor Kim Dongyeon and Assemblywoman Choo Mi-ae are leading on the ruling party side, while former Assemblyman Yoo Seungmin and Assemblywoman Kim Eunhye are strong contenders on the opposition side.

Assuming a head-to-head contest, Democratic Party candidates are ahead of People Power Party candidates. In the Kstat Research poll, Governor Kim Dongyeon led former Assemblyman Yoo Seungmin by 39% to 19%, and Assemblywoman Choo Mi-ae led Yoo by 37% to 24%, both outside the margin of error. In the Realmeter poll, Governor Kim Dongyeon led Assemblywoman Kim Eunhye by 41% to 31%, and Assemblywoman Choo Mi-ae led Kim Eunhye by 47% to 31%.

Characteristics of the Gyeonggi Election

In many cases, the party that won the presidential election also won the Gyeonggi governorship. During the presidency of Kim Daejung, Lim Changryeol won the governorship. During Lee Myungbak's presidency, Kim Moonsu won; during Park Geunhye's presidency, Nam Kyungpil won; and during Moon Jaein's presidency, Lee Jaemyung won. However, during Yoon Sukyeol's presidency, the opposition candidate Kim Dongyeon won the governorship.

<Poll Details>

- Embrain Public (commissioned by Joongbu Ilbo, surveyed men and women aged 18 and over residing in Gyeonggi Province on January 2-3, via wireless telephone interviews, with a sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level)
- Realmeter (commissioned by OhmyNews, surveyed men and women aged 18 and over residing in Gyeonggi Province on December 26-27, via wireless telephone ARS, with a sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level)
- Kstat Research (commissioned by JoongAng Ilbo, surveyed men and women aged 18 and over residing in Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Busan on December 28-30, via wireless telephone interviews, with a sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Commission.