Gongju Mayoral Race: Choi Woncheol and Kim Jeongseop in Neck-and-Neck Contest Within Margin of Error

Incumbent Advantage vs. Former Mayor's Experience
Key Battleground: Moderate and Generational Voter Preferences

On January 5, a public opinion poll revealed that Choi Woncheol, the incumbent mayor, and Kim Jeongseop, the former mayor, are in a neck-and-neck race within the margin of error in the suitability survey for Gongju City mayoral candidates in South Chungcheong Province, ahead of the 9th nationwide local elections scheduled for June 3.

In the survey conducted by Vision Korea at the request of the Gongju City Journalists Association, targeting 524 Gongju residents, Choi Woncheol of the People Power Party received 31.5%, Kim Jeongseop of the Democratic Party of Korea received 27.1%, and Lim Dalhee, Chairperson of the Gongju City Council, received 17.0%.

Additionally, 12.6% of respondents answered that there was “no suitable candidate,” while 9.0% responded “not sure,” indicating that a significant number of voters have yet to decide.

The gap between Mayor Choi and former Mayor Kim is only 4.4 percentage points, within the margin of error, making it a highly competitive race with no clear frontrunner.

Mayor Choi showed relative strength among People Power Party supporters, conservative respondents, those in their 30s, workers in agriculture, forestry, livestock, and fisheries, as well as the unemployed and retirees.

Former Mayor Kim led among Democratic Party supporters, progressive respondents, students, and those in their 60s.

Chairperson Lim showed a certain level of support mainly among young people aged 18 to 29 and students.

By gender, Mayor Choi led among male respondents, while former Mayor Kim had a slight advantage among female respondents.

By age group, the two main candidates had the same approval rating among those in their 40s. Mayor Choi was ahead among those in their 50s and 60s, while former Mayor Kim received relatively higher support from younger voters and those aged 70 and above.

By region, former Mayor Kim led in the 1st electoral district, while Mayor Choi was ahead in the 2nd electoral district, indicating that voter preferences are divided by area within Gongju City.

Among moderates and some women and self-employed respondents, the gap between the two candidates was within 4 percentage points, making policy competition and responses to current issues key variables that could determine the outcome of the upcoming election.

This survey was conducted using 84.9% mobile virtual numbers and 15.1% landline RDD, targeting 524 men and women aged 18 and older residing in Gongju City, South Chungcheong Province, using a 100% ARS (automated response system) method.

The response rate was 7.1%, and the sampling error was ±4.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Weighting was applied based on age, gender, and region, according to resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. For more detailed information on the poll, please refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.