[Good Morning Market] KOSPI Attempts to Settle Above 4,300 on Samsung Electronics Earnings and CES Momentum

U.S. "Maduro Arrest" Variable Expected to Have Limited Impact

This week, the Korean stock market is expected to attempt to settle above the 4,300-point level on the KOSPI, buoyed by major events such as Samsung Electronics' preliminary fourth-quarter earnings announcement and the world's largest electronics and IT exhibition, CES 2026. Although an unexpected geopolitical variable emerged over the weekend with a U.S. military airstrike in Venezuela, market experts believe that the main focus will remain on corporate earnings and macroeconomic indicators.

Lee Sunghoon and Han Jiyoung, researchers at Kiwoom Securities, analyzed in a report released on January 5 that "the KOSPI is expected to move within the 4,200 to 4,380-point range this week."

All eyes in the market are on Samsung Electronics' preliminary fourth-quarter earnings, scheduled for release on January 8. According to the securities industry, the consensus for Samsung Electronics' fourth-quarter operating profit stands at 16.5 trillion won, which is projected to represent approximately 150% growth year-on-year. This is attributed to rising prices of DRAM and DDR5, the effect of a strong dollar, and a trickle-down effect from Micron's record-high prices. However, considering that semiconductor stock prices have surged since the end of last year, it is possible that much of the earnings expectations have already been reflected in the share price. From December 1, 2025, to January 2, 2026, Samsung Electronics rose by 27.9%, while SK Hynix increased by 27.7%.

The researchers noted, "After Samsung Electronics' fourth-quarter earnings announcement, the extent to which this year's annual operating profit consensus is revised upward will determine the direction of the KOSPI, including semiconductors."

In addition to the semiconductor rally, stocks related to CES themes such as robotics and on-device artificial intelligence (AI) are also likely to attract attention in a rotational manner. Kiwoom Securities pointed out, "At this year's CES, physical AI is expected to be the main focus, and the key point will be whether new buying demand can be generated across the entire AI value chain derived from this."

On the international front, variables such as the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s December Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the U.S. nonfarm payroll report are on the horizon. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve slightly to 48.4 from 48.2 in the previous month. This indicator is drawing attention because it is closely linked to the flow of Korean exports.

The nonfarm payroll data, to be released on January 9, is also cited as a decisive factor for this week's stock market. New jobs are expected to decrease to 55,000 from 64,000 in the previous month, and the unemployment rate is projected to edge down to 4.5%. However, Cho Joonki, a researcher at SK Securities, commented, "Regardless of the outcome, the market reaction is expected to be muted," adding, "As seen in the market's response to previous Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) announcements, skepticism about the validity of the data itself is unlikely to dissipate, and developments related to the next Federal Reserve chair could act as a more significant variable."

As for international tensions, the U.S. airstrike in Venezuela is being highlighted. President Donald Trump ordered the arrest of President Maduro, citing drug cartel activity and dictatorship, which has reignited geopolitical tensions as major countries including China have protested. In this regard, researchers Lee Sunghoon and Han Jiyoung predicted, "Since this is an issue that should be approached from a medium-term perspective, even if oil price volatility temporarily increases, the direct impact on this week's stock market will be limited."

Meanwhile, on January 2 (local time), the New York stock market closed mixed amid a clear divergence between semiconductor and software sectors. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 48,382.39, up 319.10 points (0.66%) from the previous session. The large-cap S&P 500 Index rose 12.97 points (0.19%) to 6,858.47, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index fell 6.36 points (0.03%) to 23,235.63. The small and mid-cap Russell 2000 Index rose 1.06%.