[Market ING] KOSPI Surpasses 4,300; Semiconductor-Led Rally Expected to Continue

Weekly KOSPI Expected Range: 4,100?4,350

The KOSPI surpassed the 4,300 mark on the first trading day of 2026, fueling optimism for this year’s stock market. As the fourth-quarter earnings season for last year begins, the rally led by semiconductors, which are expected to post record-breaking results, is likely to continue.

Yonhap News

Last week, the KOSPI rose by 4.36% and the KOSDAQ by 2.82%. During the three trading days last week, the KOSPI gained more than 2% on two occasions. Notably, on January 2, the first trading day of the new year, the KOSPI climbed above the 4,300 level for the first time ever. Kang Jinhyuk, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., analyzed, "Last year’s export indicators, led by semiconductors, hit all-time highs, which acted as a positive factor. In addition, expectations ahead of Samsung Electronics’ preliminary earnings announcement and the world’s largest electronics and IT exhibition, CES 2026, contributed to the strong breakout of the previous high on the first trading day of the year, demonstrating the potential for the upward trend to continue."

The upward momentum driven by semiconductors is expected to persist for the time being. Lee Kyungmin, a researcher at Daishin Securities, stated, "With the start of the fourth-quarter pre-earnings season for 2025, upward revisions to earnings forecasts for semiconductors-especially Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix-are accelerating, expanding the KOSPI’s upside potential. The strong upward trend of the KOSPI is expected to be led by semiconductors."

Accordingly, market attention is likely to focus on Samsung Electronics’ fourth-quarter preliminary earnings announcement scheduled for January 8. Lee noted, "Samsung Electronics’ fourth-quarter revenue is expected to reach 88.6 trillion won, with operating profit estimated at 16 trillion won. The consensus (average forecast by securities firms) for annual operating profit is forming at nearly 39.5 trillion won. Recently, tight memory supply and surging demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) have strengthened the outlook for a semiconductor supercycle. Micron, which announced its results earlier, surprised the market with earnings and raised guidance, leading to a record rally. There is keen interest in whether the domestic semiconductor industry, centered on Samsung Electronics, can continue to deliver strong results."

Strong performance in the semiconductor sector is expected to invigorate the broader market. Lee explained, "As earnings forecasts for semiconductors are being sharply revised upward, the KOSPI’s 12-month forward earnings per share (EPS) rose by 30.4% over the past four quarters, and the forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) stands at 10.3 times, which is in line with the three-year average. The improved profitability of semiconductors, a key domestic industry, is expected to have a positive impact across the broader Korean industrial landscape."

Expectations for the KOSDAQ at the beginning of the year also remain valid, partly due to policy anticipation. Na Jeonghwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, commented, "The start of the year is a time when expectations for new capital inflows are rising, and it also marks the official implementation of government KOSDAQ support measures and venture company policies (such as the National Growth Fund). In addition to CES 2026, the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference will be held from January 12, which could further boost expectations for the KOSDAQ market early in the year." NH Investment & Securities presented a KOSPI forecast band of 4,100 to 4,350 for this week.

Key events this week include the release of the U.S. December ISM Manufacturing Index on January 6, the U.S. December ADP private employment data on January 7, and the U.S. December ISM Services Index and November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) on January 8. On January 9, the U.S. December employment report and China’s December Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be announced. CES 2026 will take place from January 6 to 9.

Lee added, "Ahead of the December employment report on January 9, various employment indicators such as ADP and JOLTs will be released. At the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve lowered rates, citing concerns about employment and slowing growth despite inflationary pressures. Therefore, it is important to see whether the upcoming employment report confirms a cooling labor market that could justify the rate-cutting cycle. If employment data comes in weak, expectations for further rate cuts and a rally in growth stocks could strengthen; however, ADP employment is expected to show an increase of 50,000 compared to the previous month, while nonfarm payrolls are forecast to slow to an increase of 58,000. While this does not indicate an improvement in employment, it also does not signal a hard landing. It will be important to monitor how the consensus on rate cuts shifts after these data releases."