Q1 2026 Business Outlook Index for Mid-Sized Companies Rises for Second Straight Quarter to 82.1

Korea Federation of Middle Market Enterprises Releases 2026 Q1 Business Outlook Survey
Economic Recovery Expectations Remain Negative

The Business Outlook Index for mid-sized companies in the first quarter of 2026 rose for the second consecutive quarter. However, expectations for an economic recovery remain negative.

The Korea Federation of Middle Market Enterprises announced on January 2 that the Business Outlook Index for mid-sized companies in the first quarter recorded 82.1, up 0.7 points from the previous quarter’s 81.4, according to its “2026 Q1 Business Outlook Survey.” The survey was conducted with 800 mid-sized companies from November 17 to December 1 of last year. An index above 100 indicates that more companies expect the next quarter to be better than the previous one, while an index below 100 indicates the opposite.

The manufacturing sector’s Business Outlook Index for the first quarter was 76.0, down 0.4 points from the previous quarter’s 76.4. The non-manufacturing sector’s index rose by 1.9 points to 87.6, driving the overall increase. In the manufacturing sector, the decline in the automobile and trailer industry (75.3, down 9.2 points) was particularly notable, while in the non-manufacturing sector, the wholesale and retail industry (91.7, up 7.9 points) saw a significant increase.

The Export Outlook Index for mid-sized companies recorded a slight increase to 91.3 compared to the previous quarter. The manufacturing sector rose by 6.5 points to 92.3, while the non-manufacturing sector fell by 9.5 points to 89.6. In the manufacturing sector, all industries except automobiles and trailers showed an increase compared to the previous quarter, and the electronic components and telecommunications equipment industry (100.1) shifted to a positive outlook. In the non-manufacturing sector, the transportation, construction, and publishing/communications/information services industries experienced double-digit declines.

The Domestic Demand Outlook Index for mid-sized companies rose by 3.0 points from the previous quarter to 85.6, with increases in both manufacturing (80.9, up 3.8 points) and non-manufacturing (89.9, up 2.5 points). In manufacturing, the chemicals and petroleum products industry saw a double-digit increase, while in non-manufacturing, the wholesale and retail and construction industries showed upward trends.

Outlooks for key management indicators such as production, operating profit, and funds also saw slight increases compared to the previous quarter. Park Yangkyun, Head of Policy at the Korea Federation of Middle Market Enterprises, stated, “As the Business Outlook Index for mid-sized companies in the first quarter of 2026 still remains below the positive threshold of 100, it is clear that concerns about economic recovery among mid-sized enterprises are still considerable. In order to build a solid foundation for economic recovery by leveraging the momentum of surpassing 700 billion dollars in exports-the sixth country in the world to do so-proactive regulatory easing and policy support are needed to quickly restore corporate dynamism.”