[Reporter’s Notebook] Was the Physician Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Too Hasty?

"We wanted to conduct a microdata survey for more accurate estimates, but there was a lack of data," he said.

Shin Jungwoo, Director of the Medical Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Center at the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, made this statement to reporters after the briefing on the results of the physician workforce supply and demand estimation held at the Government Complex Seoul in Jongno-gu, Seoul, on December 30. The Physician Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Committee concluded that by 2040, there will be a shortage of approximately 5,700 to 11,100 doctors. Director Shin added that it was difficult to predict the scale of productivity improvement among doctors due to advances in artificial intelligence (AI), so he made a rough estimate based on studies related to overall productivity improvements in the healthcare sector, such as streamlining paperwork. The committee emphasizes that, unlike the previous administration, these results are based on 'scientific' analysis. They also state that procedural legitimacy was ensured, as medical experts recommended by the medical community participated in the discussions and the meeting minutes were transparently released.

However, concerns remain about the accuracy of the estimation, which has proceeded rapidly since August of last year. What is particularly regrettable is that, as explained after the briefing, the committee itself was aware of these issues and limitations. These shortcomings were not impossible to address. In response to a question about whether there is data available in Korea for conducting a microdata survey, Director Shin replied that there is none at present, but it could be built in the future. This raises the question of whether they should have first drawn up a 'minimum estimate' as a preliminary outline, then conducted a microdata survey before proceeding with a more comprehensive estimation. This is why the reaction from the Korean Medical Association, stating, "It is regrettable that the estimation results were announced in haste without an accurate survey," seems reasonable.

The choice of the reference year for the estimation method used in demand forecasting (which reflects population structure) is also difficult to understand. Although it is a recent point in time, 2024 was chosen as the baseline, despite the fact that it cannot be considered a typical year due to the conflict between the government and the medical community. There were reportedly concerns raised within the committee about this issue as well. As a result, it is clear that a proper review of these concerns was not conducted.

There is no disagreement that the physician workforce supply and demand estimation must be carried out swiftly to address the many pressing issues in the medical field, including the avoidance of essential medical services. It is also acknowledged that, since this is a forecast, it is difficult to demand 100% accuracy. Nevertheless, the government must take to heart the criticism that this estimation was conducted too hastily. Assessing the appropriate size of the medical workforce is like fastening the first button in establishing a century-long national healthcare policy. The previous administration's mistake was to forcefully fasten that button in the wrong place, throwing the entire country into confusion. If the government promises to produce results that are generally acceptable to all by using the most sophisticated methods possible and asks for a little more time, who would object?