[Q&A] Chairman Kim Taehyun: "We Only Estimated Doctor Shortage... Medical School Quotas to Be Decided by Bojungsim"

Shortage Estimate Revised from 30,000 to 11,000 in Final Meeting
Bojungsim to Begin Full-Scale Deliberations in January

The Medical Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Committee has projected that by 2040, the shortage of doctors will range from a minimum of 5,704 to a maximum of 11,136. Although there were earlier projections that the shortage could reach up to 30,000, the final consensus has reduced this figure to the 10,000 range.

Regarding the size of the medical school quota for the 2027 academic year based on the estimation results, the committee drew a line, stating that this will be a matter for discussion by the Health and Medical Policy Deliberation Committee (Bojungsim).

Kim Taehyun, Chairman of the Physician Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Committee and President of the Korean Society of Health Economics and Policy, is answering questions from the press during the briefing on the "Physician Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Results" held at the Government Seoul Office in Jongno-gu, Seoul on the 30th. Photo by Choi Taewon

Kim Taehyun, Chairman of the Medical Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Committee and President of the Korean Society of Health Economics and Policy, announced these findings at the briefing on the "Medical Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Results" held on the 30th at the Government Seoul Office in Jongno-gu, Seoul. He stated, "I hope that the medical school quota deliberations will be conducted through sufficient social discussion by Bojungsim, respecting the results of the medical workforce supply and demand estimation."

The following is a Q&A with Chairman Kim.

-In previous meetings, the shortage of doctors was announced as 9,000 to 36,000. Why is the final result so different?

▲Until the previous meetings, two types of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were applied, but in today's final meeting, only one was adopted. Different scenarios were applied to the single adopted model, which is why the figures changed. The ARIMA model that was not adopted tended to overestimate the shortage, as pointed out by several committee members, so it was ultimately not selected, resulting in different outcomes. There were also some adjustments to the number of working days for doctors.

-What are the differences compared to previous medical workforce supply and demand estimations?

▲We referred to all prior research and selected multiple models to reflect a variety of perspectives through discussions among all committee members. Since the majority of the committee consists of experts recommended by the medical community, we expect a high level of acceptance.

-If productivity increases with the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI), why does the demand for medical services appear to decrease?

▲This is due to the way the results are expressed in terms of supply and demand. Because doctors' productivity increases through AI, the amount of care a doctor can provide increases, which is reflected in the results.

-Were current government health policy initiatives and the possibility of policies to curb medical utilization due to concerns about health insurance finances considered?

▲There were discussions among committee members about considering these factors, but they were ultimately not included in this estimation.

-Is it appropriate to simply apply recent data, given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and recent conflicts between the government and the medical community?

▲There was extensive discussion among committee members regarding the COVID-19 pandemic and conflicts between the government and the medical community. We tried treating the data from this period as dummy variables, but excluding recent data actually reduced the accuracy of the model, so no special measures were taken. Ultimately, to improve accuracy, the ARIMA model reflected long-term trends, while the composition method (which reflects population structure) used only the most recent year, 2024.

-Was there a vote at the final meeting?

▲There was a kind of vote. Not all committee members agreed on the methods, assumptions, or variables. In the process of not adopting a particular model and adopting the remaining models for the final results, the opinions of each member were reflected in the decision.

-What will be the size of the medical school quota for 2027 based on the estimation results?

▲The committee's role is limited to estimating the future shortage of medical personnel. The size of the medical school quota will be discussed by Bojungsim, a social consensus body, based on the estimation results.

-Will Bojungsim reach a conclusion before the Lunar New Year after discussions in January?

▲The timing of the final decision ultimately depends on the outcome of the discussions, so it is difficult to say in advance. Taking into account the admissions schedule and the need for sufficient discussion, we plan to proceed quickly with the schedule in January, even if it means holding more frequent meetings. This topic was discussed at Bojungsim the previous day.