"400,000 Buildings to Collapse, 18,000 Deaths... Economic Damage to Reach 800 Trillion Won" Shocking Japanese Report

Japanese Government Disaster Management Council Report
70% Probability of a Major Earthquake Directly Beneath Tokyo Within 30 Years

A new report from the Japanese government has revealed that if a 'direct metropolitan earthquake' with a magnitude of 7 or higher were to strike Tokyo, the death toll could reach up to 18,000.

On December 19, the Central Disaster Management Council's working group released the "Damage Estimates and Countermeasures Report for a Direct Metropolitan Earthquake." A direct metropolitan earthquake refers to a major earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher that occurs underground in the Tokyo metropolitan area, including Tokyo itself. Unlike typical earthquakes that originate far offshore, this type of earthquake occurs directly beneath the city, meaning that even if the magnitude is not extremely high, the resulting damage could be catastrophic.

On the 9th, a magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred in Aomori Prefecture, Japan, causing the hospital ceiling to collapse, and staff are cleaning up. Photo by EPA Yonhap News

Previously, the Japanese government estimated a 70% probability that a direct metropolitan earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher will occur within the next 30 years. For this reason, Tokyo residents fear a direct metropolitan earthquake more than the anticipated Nankai Trough Earthquake, which is expected to occur off the southwestern coast of Honshu.

The report projected that a direct metropolitan earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher could result in as many as 18,000 direct deaths. Of these, about two-thirds-approximately 12,000 people-would die in fires, while 5,300 would lose their lives due to building collapses. In addition, the number of indirect deaths caused by worsening chronic illnesses or lack of care in the aftermath of the disaster could range from 16,000 to 41,000. The risk of collapse and fire was found to be higher in wooden buildings than in steel-frame structures, and buildings in the outskirts of Tokyo were more likely to be lost than those in the city center.

Over 400,000 Buildings in Tokyo and Surrounding Seven Prefectures at Risk

The number of buildings expected to collapse or be destroyed by fire in Tokyo and the surrounding seven prefectures was estimated at 402,000. The report predicted that 112,000 buildings would be completely destroyed by the earthquake, and 290,000 would be lost to fire. In Tokyo alone, the earthquake could result in 8,000 deaths and the destruction of 170,000 buildings due to collapse or fire. The report also estimated that the economic damage from a direct metropolitan earthquake in Tokyo could reach 80 trillion to 82 trillion yen (approximately 800 trillion won).

A fire broke out due to an earthquake that occurred on the 9th in Aomori Prefecture, Japan. Photo by AFP Yonhap News

Twelve years ago, in 2013, the Central Disaster Management Council estimated that a direct metropolitan earthquake would result in 23,000 deaths. Although the number of projected deaths in the latest report has decreased by 5,000 compared to then, it remains significant.

Japanese authorities are working to minimize damage by increasing the earthquake resistance rate of buildings and improving densely packed wooden housing areas, but progress has been slow. The report emphasized that if the nationwide earthquake resistance rate-currently at about 90%-is raised to 100%, and if seismic circuit breakers (devices that detect earthquakes and cut off electricity) are installed in every home and building, the damage could be further reduced.