Japanese Government Disaster Management Council Report
70% Probability of a Major Earthquake Directly Beneath Tokyo Within 30 Years
A new report from the Japanese government has revealed that if a 'directly beneath the capital' earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or higher were to strike Tokyo, the death toll could reach up to 18,000.
On December 19, the working group of the Central Disaster Management Council of Japan released a report titled "Damage Estimates and Countermeasures for a Directly Beneath the Capital Earthquake." A 'directly beneath the capital' earthquake refers to a major earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher occurring underground in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Unlike typical earthquakes that occur far offshore, this type of earthquake happens directly beneath urban areas, meaning that even if the magnitude is not extremely high, the resulting damage can be catastrophic.
On the 9th, a magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred in Aomori Prefecture, Japan, causing the hospital ceiling to collapse, and staff are cleaning up. Photo by EPA Yonhap News
Previously, the Japanese government estimated the probability of a magnitude 7 or higher 'directly beneath the capital' earthquake occurring within the next 30 years at 70%. For this reason, residents of Tokyo fear this scenario more than the Nankai Trough Earthquake, which is expected to occur off the southwestern coast of Honshu.
The report projected that a magnitude 7 or higher earthquake directly beneath the capital could result in as many as 18,000 immediate deaths. Of these, about two-thirds, or approximately 12,000, would be due to fires, while 5,300 would be caused by building collapses. In addition, the number of deaths from indirect causes, such as worsening of chronic illnesses or lack of care after the disaster, could reach between 16,000 and 41,000. The risk of collapse and fire was found to be higher in wooden structures compared to steel-framed buildings, and the likelihood of building loss was greater in the suburbs than in central Tokyo.
Over 400,000 Buildings in Tokyo and Surrounding Seven Prefectures at Risk
The number of buildings in Tokyo and the surrounding seven prefectures that are expected to collapse or be lost to fire is estimated at 402,000. The report predicted that 112,000 buildings would be completely destroyed by the earthquake itself, and 290,000 would be lost to fires. In Tokyo alone, the number of deaths from the earthquake is projected at 8,000, and the number of buildings lost to collapse or fire is expected to reach 170,000. The report also estimated that the economic damage from such an earthquake in Tokyo could reach 80 to 82 trillion yen (approximately 800 trillion won).
A fire broke out due to an earthquake that occurred on the 9th in Aomori Prefecture, Japan. Photo by AFP Yonhap News
Twelve years ago, in 2013, the Central Disaster Management Council estimated the death toll from a 'directly beneath the capital' earthquake at 23,000. While the current report's estimate is 5,000 lower than that of 2013, the projected loss remains significant.
Japanese authorities are working to minimize damage by increasing the earthquake resistance rate of buildings and redeveloping areas densely packed with wooden structures, but progress has been slow. The report emphasized that raising the national earthquake resistance rate of buildings from the current 90% to 100%, and installing seismic circuit breakers (devices that detect earthquakes and cut off electricity) in all homes and buildings, could further reduce the damage.
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