[Click eStock] "SpaceX Expected to Reach $1?1.5 Trillion Valuation Upon IPO"

Recently, SpaceX was valued at $800 billion (approximately 1,180 trillion won) in private equity trading. This surpassed OpenAI, which was valued at $500 billion, making SpaceX the most valuable private company in the world. If the company goes public in the second half of next year, its valuation is expected to reach between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion.

SpaceX's business segments are largely divided into rocket launch services, Starlink low-Earth orbit satellite communication services, and government projects. For rocket launches, its main reusable launch vehicle, the Falcon 9, completed 132 launches last year and has recorded 165 launches so far this year.

Jeong Huihun, a research analyst at Eugene Investment & Securities, stated, "The fee per launch is estimated at around $70 million. Based on this, launch revenue for this year is about $11.5 billion. However, if we exclude the 122 launches that carried SpaceX's own Starlink satellites out of the 165 total launches, the rocket launch revenue is expected to be around $3 billion. Assuming approximately 190 Falcon 9 launches next year and excluding Starlink launches, launch revenue is estimated at about $3.5 billion."

The Starlink business segment can be further divided into communication service revenue and equipment sales revenue. Recently, the number of Starlink subscribers worldwide surpassed 8 million. At the end of last year, there were about 4.5 million subscribers, meaning the number has nearly doubled in just one year. This rapid growth is attributed to the recent expansion of service areas into Asian countries, which has quickly increased the user base. At this rate, the number of subscribers is expected to exceed 11 million next year.

Jeong explained, "Starlink service plans vary by region, but considering that monthly fees range from as low as $60 to as high as $120, if we estimate the average monthly fee per person at about $80, next year's service revenue would be around $10.5 billion. Assuming ground equipment sales at $300 per unit, that would add about $900 million, bringing total Starlink revenue next year to approximately $11.4 billion."

Jeong further noted, "The combined revenue from rocket launches and the Starlink segment is about $15 billion. Including various project revenues, SpaceX's total revenue next year is estimated to be around $17 billion to $18 billion."

He added, "Currently, Rocket Lab, a small rocket launch company in the United States, has a market capitalization of about $31.3 billion, with this year's estimated revenue at around $600 million, resulting in a PSR (price-to-sales ratio) of about 52. Applying this to SpaceX, the valuation would be about $1 trillion. Considering SpaceX's unrivaled technological capabilities and revenue growth in the global space industry, it is reasonable to expect a valuation of at least $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, which aligns with current market expectations."