[New U.S. Security Strategy ②] "U.S.-China Relations Now Transactional, South Korea Must Seize Pragmatic Gains in the Gaps"

Advice from Diplomacy and Security Experts
Preparing for Shifting Relationships Is Key
"Maintain Neutrality Between China and Japan" ... "A Strategy to Sidestep Trump’s Demands Is Also Needed"
Let U.S. Demands Slide ... "No Need for Us to Go Over

There is a mix of anticipation and concern regarding how the recently released U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) report, which outlines diplomatic and security strategies for Northeast Asia, will affect the "Korean Peninsula Peace and Coexistence Process" that the Lee Jaemyung administration has declared will begin in earnest next year. This is due to the omission of references to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and noticeable changes in the traditional descriptions of China, Russia, and Japan. Experts advise that President Lee Jaemyung should seek out opportunities and breakthroughs, considering that Northeast Asian diplomacy, security, and U.S.-China relations are now operating on a transactional basis.

The first NSS report of the second Donald Trump administration defined the Indo-Pacific as the "economic and geopolitical battleground of the 21st century." Competition with China was characterized not as a clash of values or systems, but as a struggle for economic hegemony involving trade imbalances, supply chain dominance, and rare earth elements and artificial intelligence (AI). Regarding Russia, the report identified "the swift end of the war in Ukraine and the restoration of strategic stability" as core U.S. interests, and described the need to manage European affairs in order to redirect resources to Asia. This stands in contrast to the 2022 Biden administration NSS, which defined China as "the only competitor with the intent and, increasingly, the capacity to reshape the international order," and Russia as "an immediate threat to a free and open international order."

Regarding Japan, the perception shifted from viewing it in 2022 as a "normative partner in safeguarding a free and open Indo-Pacific" to describing it as the front line of deterrence against China and a key defensive stronghold. In particular, the United States grouped Japan and South Korea together, demanding increased defense spending, expansion of long-range strike and naval capabilities, and greater access to U.S. military bases, sending a message that economic and military burdens should be shared significantly to contain China.

◆Advice from Diplomacy Experts: "Letting U.S. Demands Slide Can Be a Strategy"

After analyzing the NSS report, diplomatic and security experts advised President Lee Jaemyung to keep in mind the "transactionalism" of the United States. The implication is that South Korea should not treat the U.S. as an ally in the traditional sense, but as a counterpart for negotiation, and should craft its diplomatic strategy accordingly. They also suggested avoiding unnecessary disputes, closely monitoring the situation in neighboring countries to secure national interests, and changing the atmosphere to encourage North Korea to come to the negotiating table.

Im Eulchul, professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, advised that "what is most important in President Lee's foreign policy is to give what must be given, but to receive what we want in return." He emphasized, "We must deploy all our resources to avoid a situation where we give everything but fail to secure meaningful cooperation from the U.S. on Korean Peninsula peace policy," adding, "When the administration is still strong, we must negotiate pragmatically with the U.S. to maximize our interests."

Yang Wook, research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, pointed out, "The U.S. says it will no longer act as the world's police and wants South Korea and Japan to share the burden of containing China. Yet, the U.S. offers nothing concrete to South Korea in return." He continued, "We simply need to be cautious in our actions," and added, "Trump has undermined the credibility of his own words." He further advised, "Letting U.S. demands slide can also be a strategy. There is no need for us to overreact."

Hwang Jaeho, professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, also analyzed, "If South Korea can maintain a neutral stance without overstepping in relations with China and Japan or on the Taiwan issue, there are few immediate diplomatic challenges." This is interpreted as advice not to provoke diplomatic counterparts by taking sides. He evaluated, "Contrary to concerns at the start of the Lee Jaemyung administration, pragmatic diplomacy has yielded significant results, and stable relations have been maintained with the U.S., China, and Japan."

Kim Jaecheon, professor at Sogang University Graduate School of International Studies, recommended that President Lee "closely monitor the U.S. policy stance toward China." He noted, "The relationship between the U.S. and China remains ambiguous. If China does not meet U.S. demands, the U.S. may resume its hardline stance against China." He also expressed concern that "if key economic chokepoints between the two countries disappear, the conflict could intensify further."

Yonhap News Agency

Omission of 'North Korean Denuclearization' Phrase: "Step Toward Improving Relations" vs. "Sign of Indifference"

The NSS report also showed significant changes in its description of North Korea. While the 2017 NSS report under the first Trump administration stated the need to "improve conditions to enforce denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," this content was omitted this year. At that time, the report mentioned "North Korea" 17 times, and the Biden administration referred to North Korea three times, but this year, it was not mentioned at all.

Experts were divided in their analysis. Some interpreted this as a move aimed at improving relations, such as paving the way for a U.S.-North Korea summit, while others saw it as a sign of indifference toward North Korea.

Professor Hwang stated, "I believe there will be common ground between South Korea and the U.S. on North Korea policy. There is much consensus between South Korea and China, and communication with Japan on North Korea also seems possible. At the very least, the war in Ukraine must end before North Korea can reconsider its strategic options." Professor Im commented, "It is mechanical analysis to draw conclusions based solely on the NSS report, but strengthening the U.S.-South Korea alliance can elicit cooperation from the U.S. Ultimately, it depends on how the Lee Jaemyung administration pursues pragmatic diplomacy to secure national interests."

On the other hand, Professor Kim argued, "Denuclearization and reunification have effectively been pushed aside in the NSS. In the short and medium term, denuclearization has become unattainable, and its priority on the U.S. diplomatic and security agenda has declined." Yang Wook, research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, also dismissed the issue, saying, "President Trump has nothing to gain from Kim Jong Un, Chairman of North Korea's State Affairs Commission. Trump's proposal for dialogue with North Korea is largely aimed at suppressing North Korea-related issues, and his praise for Kim Jong Un is simply an attempt to highlight his own achievements."

There were also differing opinions on the possibility of a summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un. Professor Kim said, "It can only be seen as reflecting Trump's intention to try something with Chairman Kim. If U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia relations improve, the likelihood of U.S.-North Korea dialogue resuming naturally increases." Yang Wook, however, argued, "Some interpret the omission of denuclearization as a move to facilitate dialogue with North Korea, but in reality, it is simply due to a lack of interest in North Korea." Professor Hwang took a neutral stance, stating, "It depends on North Korea's response."

In this regard, Wi Sunglak, National Security Advisor at the Presidential Office, dismissed the controversy, stating, "The fundamental guidelines for drafting the report are fundamentally different from those in 2022." He explained that there has been no change, as the joint fact sheet from the South Korea-U.S. summit on November 14 included the phrase "complete denuclearization of the DPRK." President Lee plans to strengthen solidarity with neighboring countries such as the U.S., China, and Japan, with the Korean Peninsula issue in mind.

Yonhap News Agency

International Order Remains Uncertain, but ... "There Are Still Opportunities to Secure National Interests"

Experts offered a cautiously optimistic analysis, suggesting that although the international order is uncertain, there are still opportunities for the South Korean government. Professor Hwang said, "The instability and uncertainty of the international order are due to shifts in the U.S. posture, and the answer lies in pragmatism. Issues such as nuclear-powered submarine construction or uranium enrichment and reprocessing could present opportunities to secure national interests." Professor Kim added, "If the U.S. no longer engages in overt confrontation with China, countries like South Korea that are caught in the middle may have some leeway. For example, even if it does not involve cutting-edge semiconductors, South Korea could still cooperate with China on older-generation semiconductors."

In fact, as the U.S. has cited South Korea as a model case for "increased defense spending," it is widely believed that the burden of increasing defense costs or relocating U.S. forces in Korea has been eased. South Korea has concluded a security agreement with the U.S. to allocate 3.5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to core military expenditures. In his speech at the Reagan National Defense Forum, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth praised South Korea, Israel, and Poland as "model allies," stating, "They will receive special favor from us." Elbridge Colby, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, also wrote on social media (SNS), "Through the Hauge Pledge, the U.S. and its allies will achieve and maintain peace through strength. Most recently, the Republic of Korea is an example."

However, Yang Wook cautioned, "The U.S.-South Korea alliance issue requires the most attention. All we have done this year is barely stabilize what was a terrible relationship. The alliance issue will persist throughout the Trump administration." He warned, "The Trump administration is fundamentally dominated by the MAGA (Make America Great Again) faction, so it would be a grave mistake to think the alliance issue has been resolved."