Job Openings Reach 7.67 Million, Highest in Five Months
New Hires Decline... Voluntary Quits Down, Layoffs Up
The number of job openings in the United States in October reached its highest level in five months. However, as new hires decreased and layoffs increased, signs of a slowdown in the labor market persist.
A job posting is displayed at a retail store in Arlington Heights, Illinois, USA. Photo by AP Yonhap News
According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) released by the U.S. Department of Labor on December 9 (local time), the number of job openings was 7.658 million in September and 7.67 million in October.
The September figure surpassed both August’s 7.227 million and the forecast of 7.2 million, while the October number also increased from the previous month, marking the highest level in five months. The release of these job opening figures had been delayed due to the federal government shutdown, and both the September and October data were published together on this day.
By industry, job openings in October saw a significant increase in healthcare (1.424 million), as well as growth in professional and business services (1.388 million), trade, transportation, and utilities (1.363 million), and leisure and hospitality (1.159 million).
While job openings rose, layoffs also increased.
The number of hires in October was 5.149 million, with a hiring rate of 3.2%, both lower than September’s 5.367 million and 3.4%.
The number of quits was 5.05 million, with a quit rate of 3.2%, showing a slight improvement compared to the previous month (5.264 million, 3.3%). Among these, voluntary quits were 2.941 million (quit rate 1.8%), down from the previous month’s 3.128 million (2.0%), marking the lowest level since May 2020. In contrast, involuntary separations, or layoffs, increased to 1.854 million (layoff rate 1.2%) from 1.781 million (1.1%) the previous month, reaching the highest level since early 2023. The increase in layoffs was particularly notable in the accommodation and food services sector.
While fewer workers are quitting their jobs voluntarily, layoffs are on the rise. This suggests that although the number of job openings is increasing, companies are becoming more cautious about new hires due to factors such as tariff policies, rising costs, and economic uncertainty, and workers themselves are viewing the labor market more pessimistically.
Stuart Paul, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, commented, "A closer look at the October JOLTs report shows that labor demand is relatively weaker than the headline numbers suggest. Overall, job openings increased, but layoffs rose and voluntary quits declined. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to view the labor market as the current source of inflationary pressure."
Although the labor market is not cooling rapidly, signs of weakening are emerging, leading the market to expect a higher likelihood of a Fed rate cut the following day. According to CME FedWatch, as of this day, the federal funds futures market is pricing in an 87.4% chance that the Fed will cut the current federal funds rate of 3.75-4.0% by 0.25 percentage points at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 10. The probability of a rate hold stands at 12.6%.
Stephen Stanley, Chief U.S. Economist at Santander US Capital Markets, stated, "Overall, the labor market is neither overheating nor accelerating, but it is not collapsing either."
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