US Job Openings Rise in October, but Hiring Falls and Layoffs Increase as Labor Market Slowdown Persists

Job Openings Reach 7.67 Million, Highest in Five Months
New Hires Decline... Voluntary Quits Down, Layoffs Up

The number of job openings in the United States in October reached its highest level in five months. However, as new hires declined and layoffs increased, signs of a slowdown in the labor market have persisted.

A job posting is displayed at a retail store in Arlington Heights, Illinois, USA. Photo by AP Yonhap News

According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) released by the U.S. Department of Labor on December 9 (local time), the number of job openings was 7.658 million in September and 7.67 million in October.

The September figure not only exceeded that of August (7.227 million) but also surpassed market expectations (7.2 million). The October figure also rose compared to the previous month, marking the highest level in five months. The release of these job opening numbers had been delayed due to the temporary federal government shutdown, and both the September and October figures were published on this day.

By industry, job openings in October saw a significant increase in healthcare (1.424 million). Other sectors that also saw growth included professional and business services (1.388 million), trade, transportation, and utilities (1.363 million), and leisure and hospitality (1.159 million).

Although the number of job openings increased, layoffs also rose.

The number of hires in October was 5.149 million, with a hiring rate of 3.2%, both lower than in September (5.367 million hires, 3.4% hiring rate).

The number of quits was 5.05 million, with a quit rate of 3.2%, showing a slight improvement compared to the previous month (5.264 million, 3.3%). Of these, voluntary quits stood at 2.941 million (quit rate of 1.8%), down from 3.128 million (2.0%) in the previous month, marking the lowest level since May 2020. In contrast, involuntary separations, or layoffs, increased to 1.854 million (layoff rate of 1.2%) from 1.781 million (1.1%) in the previous month, reaching the highest level since early 2023. The rise in layoffs was particularly notable in the accommodation and food services sector.

While the number of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs is decreasing, layoffs are on the rise. This suggests that although job openings have increased, companies are becoming more cautious about new hiring in response to factors such as tariff policies, rising costs, and economic uncertainty. Workers, in turn, are viewing the labor market more pessimistically.

Stuart Paul, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, commented, "A closer look at the October JOLTs report shows that labor demand is relatively weaker than the headline numbers suggest. Overall, job openings increased, but layoffs rose and voluntary quits declined. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to view the labor market as a current source of inflationary pressure."

Although the labor market is not cooling rapidly, signs of weakening have led the market to expect a higher likelihood of a Fed rate cut the following day. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, as of this day, the federal funds futures market was pricing in an 87.4% probability that the Fed would lower the current benchmark rate of 3.75% to 4.0% by 0.25 percentage points at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 10. The probability of a rate hold was 12.6%.

Stephen Stanley, Chief U.S. Economist at Santander US Capital Markets, stated, "Overall, the labor market is neither overheating nor accelerating, but it is not collapsing either."