Seoul Apartment Pre-sale Outlook at 66.3 Points
Moderation in Housing Price Increases and Rising Interest Rates Cited
Non-metropolitan Index Also Falls by 5.8 Points
This month, the nationwide apartment pre-sale outlook index has fallen to its lowest level in two years. Although real estate transaction volume in regional areas slightly increased following the October 15 measures, the growing number of unsold homes appears to have had little positive effect on the outlook for the pre-sale market.
The Housing Industry Research Institute announced on December 9 that, based on a survey of housing industry professionals, the nationwide apartment pre-sale outlook index for this month was calculated at 66.3, down 5.8 points from the previous month. This is the lowest figure since December 2023 (61.5).
In the Seoul metropolitan area, the index dropped by 6.2 points to 67.1. In Seoul, it fell by 3 points to 81.8, while Incheon recorded a decrease of 17.2 points to 48.0. Gyeonggi Province, on the other hand, saw a rise of 1.7 points to 71.4.
The pre-sale outlook index is a quantified indicator based on a survey of housing developers regarding the conditions of complexes that are about to be pre-sold or are currently in the pre-sale process. An index above 100 indicates a positive outlook for pre-sales, while a figure below 100 indicates the opposite.
In Seoul, the October 15 measures are believed to have contributed to the decline in the index. The Housing Industry Research Institute diagnosed, "The slight decline in the index seems to be due to a moderation in the increase in housing prices following the implementation of the measures, as well as a rise in lending rates." In contrast, regarding the increase in Gyeonggi Province, the institute explained, "Expectations for rising home prices continue due to the balloon effect of regulations such as the land transaction permit system, so a slight increase is anticipated."
Outside the metropolitan area, the index is projected to fall by 5.8 points to 66.1. Gwangju is expected to drop by 27.0 points, Jeju by 14.3 points, North Gyeongsang Province by 14.1 points, and South Chungcheong Province by 13.5 points. However, Ulsan and Daejeon are analyzed to have risen by 14.3 points and 1.5 points, respectively. Sejong is also projected to rise by 1.3 points.
The pre-sale supply outlook index was calculated at 84.4, up 4.7 points from the previous month. The unsold supply outlook index rose by 3.1 points from the previous month to 101.6. The Housing Industry Research Institute explained, "This is analyzed to be due to the continued high exchange rate, which has led to an increase in the price of imported construction raw materials, as well as rising market interest rates."
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
