Macquarie: "Global Economy to Grow 3.5% Next Year... Infrastructure and Real Estate Investments Promising"

Macquarie Asset Management 2026 Outlook Report

It is projected that the global economy will maintain a 3.5% growth rate next year, driven by factors such as ongoing geopolitical tensions and productivity gains from artificial intelligence (AI). In particular, investment opportunities are expected to open up, especially in infrastructure and real estate.

On December 9, Macquarie Asset Management released its 2026 outlook report containing these insights. The report forecasts that the global economy will continue to grow at a rate of 3.5% next year, supported by healthy consumer activity in advanced economies, AI infrastructure investment, and a more accommodative interest rate environment.

However, the report expressed concerns that the real economic impact of U.S. tariff hikes could become pronounced in the first half of next year. According to the report, the current effective U.S. tariff rate stands at about 17.4%, the highest level since the 1930s. The report explains that, just as the real economic impact of tariff hikes during Donald Trump’s first term appeared with a lag of about 9 to 18 months, the full effects of this year’s tariff increases could start to emerge from the first half of next year.

The report identified AI as the most significant variable for the global economy in the coming year. “Investments in AI-related facilities, data centers, and telecommunications infrastructure have accounted for about 15% of U.S. economic growth since 2023,” the report stated, adding, “The productivity boost could potentially raise global annual growth by more than 0.7 percentage points.”

Meanwhile, the most attractive investment opportunities next year are expected to be in infrastructure and real estate. Ben Way, Head of Macquarie Asset Management Group, said, “Over the past 18 months, Macquarie Asset Management Group has realized total returns exceeding $50 billion from hyperscale data center investments, the largest in the company’s history. We remain positive on the long-term economic and social viability of renewable energy and the energy transition, a view strongly shared by institutional and high-net-worth investors worldwide.”

In particular, data centers, power grids, renewable energy, and transmission and distribution infrastructure were highlighted as the biggest beneficiaries of surging demand for AI and electricity. The report noted, “The United States plans to add 64 gigawatts (GW) of new power generation capacity in 2025 alone, while China increased its capacity by more than 290 GW in just the first half of the year.”

The report also assessed that real estate has entered a recovery phase. As asset prices have adjusted due to interest rate normalization and new supply has shrunk significantly, there is increasing potential for medium- to long-term rent growth, particularly in residential, logistics, and data center sectors. The report emphasized that a favorable environment has been created for medium- to long-term investors.

The outlook for bond and credit markets was more cautious. The report stated, “While there is room for further rate cuts in U.S. Treasuries, the European bond market faces significant fiscal burdens, and concerns over inflation are rising in Japan, leading to market differentiation.”