It Looks Like Google Has Won, But... AI Dominance May Last Only 100 Days

Gemini 3.0 Launch Prompts Reassessment of Google’s TPU Chips
Google Surpasses Microsoft in Market Cap, Challenges Nvidia on Wall Street
"AI Market Leaders Change Every Three Months... Short-Term Investment Recommended"

Recently, there has been analysis suggesting that Nvidia's dominance is being threatened after Google unveiled its latest artificial intelligence (AI) model, Gemini 3.0, which was trained using its proprietary TPU chips. Alphabet (Google's parent company) shares surged on the New York Stock Exchange.

However, some predict that even Google may only enjoy a "100-day reign." This is because the leading AI stocks have typically changed within a period of about three months.

Google Chips Challenge Nvidia's Dominance

Since the beginning of 2024, Google has ramped up its AI capital expenditures (CapEx), and despite being the last among cloud service providers (CSPs) to do so, it surpassed Microsoft this week to become the third-largest company by market capitalization. Since late October, Google has benefited from a series of positive developments: a TPU supply contract with Anthropic, the unveiling of its seventh-generation TPU Ironwood, Berkshire Hathaway's announcement of a $4.9 billion increase in its Alphabet holdings, the release of Gemini 3.0, and discussions with Meta Platforms regarding TPU supply.

Yonhap News Agency

Key competitive advantages of Google's seventh-generation TPU Ironwood include HBM capacity and bandwidth on par with Nvidia's Blackwell, NVLink 5-class ultra-high-speed interconnect, optical circuit switching, and power efficiency based on its proprietary networking. Thanks to these technological strengths, Google's data processing speed and power efficiency within Google Cloud have surpassed those of Nvidia products. As a result, there is growing anticipation that Google's penetration in the AI infrastructure market will expand rapidly, beyond what Nvidia had anticipated.

But Google Chips Still Have a Long Way to Go... Rapidly Changing AI Leaders on Wall Street

However, the market targeted by Google's Gemini 3.0 is still in its early stages. AI platforms remain at the level of user input-based generative AI, and there is still a long way to go before reaching advanced agentic AI stages such as autonomous driving, robotics control, and work automation.

Some also point out the need to note that leading AI stocks have typically changed every three months or so. In fact, since the end of last year, the leading stocks have shifted with each major event: the market share expansion of Broadcom, an ASIC semiconductor vendor; the rotation of AI investments toward China following the DeepSeek shock; Nvidia's momentum recovery with the shipment of the GB200 NVL72; and AMD's new products and customer acquisitions projected for 2026. This pattern has been observed among CSP companies as well.

Hwang Byungjun, an analyst at Yuanta Securities, stated, "Over the past year, the leading AI investment stocks have changed with each event, roughly every three months," and emphasized, "In the short term, an investment strategy based on the valuation of leading AI stocks appears appropriate."