[New York Stock Exchange] Four-Day Rally Ahead of Thanksgiving... Tech Stocks Surge, December Rate Cut Hopes

Bargain Hunting Emerges After This Month’s AI Correction
Tech Stocks Surge, Led by Oracle, Nvidia, and Microsoft
Fed Beige Book Notes Decline in Consumer Spending
85% Probability of Rate Cut in December

On the 26th (local time), a day before Thanksgiving, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. After facing a correction earlier this month due to concerns over overheated investments in artificial intelligence (AI), the market continued its four-day winning streak, driven by bargain hunting in technology stocks and growing expectations for a rate cut in December.

On the 26th, a day before Thanksgiving (local time), people dressed as Santa Claus and fairies visited the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in the United States. Photo by AFP Yonhap News

On this day at the New York Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47,427.12, up 314.67 points (0.67%) from the previous session. The large-cap S&P 500 Index rose by 46.73 points (0.69%) to 6,812.61, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 189.099 points (0.82%) to finish at 23,214.69.

By stock, Oracle surged by 4.05%. Deutsche Bank’s reaffirmation of its bullish outlook on Oracle’s stock positively influenced investor sentiment. Nvidia gained 1.37%, Microsoft rose 1.78%, and Apple increased by 0.21%. Alphabet, Google’s parent company, which set a new all-time high the previous day, fell by 1.04%. Recently, Google’s latest AI model, Gemini 3, has received positive reviews, and news that Meta, Facebook’s parent company, is considering adopting Google’s AI chips has led Alphabet to reach record highs for several consecutive days.

Eric Diton, President and Managing Director of Wells Alliance, commented, “We’ve seen a very rapid reversal from the risk-off behavior of the past one to two weeks, which is completely normal,” adding, “Thanksgiving week is typically a period of bullish markets.” He further noted, “From November to April is historically the best time of the year for the stock market, so it’s hard to abandon a bullish outlook.”

Clark Bellin, President and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bellwether Wealth, stated, “Bargain hunting remains active, helping stocks recover from recent weeks of weakness,” and assessed, “The market’s decline in November is about 4% from the October peak, which is much smaller than the typical correction threshold of 10%.” However, he added, “While I expect the stock market to reach new all-time highs, there is no clear catalyst to drive the market significantly higher through the end of the year.”

Amid growing concerns over a slowdown in employment, the number of weekly initial jobless claims announced on this day was lower than expected. According to the Department of Labor, initial jobless claims for the week of November 16 to November 22 totaled 216,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week and well below the expert forecast of 225,000. This is the lowest level since mid-April. It suggests that while companies are hesitant to hire new employees, they are generally maintaining their existing workforce. On the other hand, the number of continuing jobless claims-those applying for unemployment benefits for more than two weeks-was 1.96 million for the week of November 9 to November 15, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week, indicating that it is becoming increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs.

With no clear new drivers, market attention is focused on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut its benchmark interest rate next month. In September, retail sales increased by only 0.2% from the previous month, showing a slowdown in the recovery. The Fed’s Beige Book, released the same day, stated, “Overall consumer spending has decreased further, while spending on high-priced retail goods has remained solid. Consumers are showing caution in discretionary spending.” The September Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% from the previous month, matching market expectations (0.3%), which is also supporting expectations for a rate cut in December. According to CME FedWatch, there is an 84.9% probability that the Fed will cut its current benchmark interest rate of 3.75-4.0% by 0.25 percentage points in December.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported the previous day that Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the U.S. White House National Economic Council (NEC), is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair. Hassett is considered someone who would pursue a monetary policy stance aligned with President Donald Trump’s calls for rate cuts.

U.S. Treasury yields are moving sideways. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, the global benchmark for bond rates, stands at 3.99%, unchanged from the previous day, while the 2-year yield, which is sensitive to monetary policy, is at 3.47%, up 2 basis points (1bp = 0.01 percentage points) from the previous day.

Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market will be closed on the 27th for Thanksgiving and will have an early close at 1 p.m. on the 28th.