Takaiichi's "Existential Crisis" Remarks Trigger China's 'Hanilryeong' Pressure [Current Affairs Show]

Unusually Swift Measures Led by the Chinese Government
Short-Term Gains for Korea's Tourism Industry... Concerns Over Long-Term Risks

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show'

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop

■ Producer: Park Sumin

■ Guest: Reporter Lee Hyunwoo

With the Chinese government launching all-out pressure against Japan, the so-called 'Hanilryeong' is now in full swing. In a manner similar to the previous 'Hallyeong' targeting Korea, China is imposing strict measures such as restricting its citizens' travel to Japan and banning imports of Japanese seafood. As a result, while Japan's economy is expected to take a significant hit, South Korea faces a complex situation of short-term benefits and long-term concerns.

Prime Minister Takaiichi's "Existential Crisis" Remarks Spark Conflict

AFP Yonhap News

The immediate trigger for the current Hanilryeong was Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaiichi's remarks regarding Taiwan. Prime Minister Takaiichi stated, "If the use of warships in Taiwan is accompanied by military action, it could become an existential crisis for Japan." Although the wording appeared cautious on the surface, it was interpreted as indicating that Japan could intervene militarily in the event of a Taiwan contingency.

The core issue lies in the term "existential crisis." Under its constitution, Japan maintains only the Self-Defense Forces rather than a formal military, and the Self-Defense Forces are legally restricted to respond only when the nation faces an existential crisis due to foreign aggression. Prime Minister Takaiichi's remarks are seen as defining China's potential military invasion of Taiwan as an existential crisis for Japan, thereby providing a basis for the Self-Defense Forces to be deployed to the Taiwan Strait.

Furthermore, this could also be interpreted as an exercise of collective self-defense, which has fueled controversy. The logic of collective self-defense allows the Self-Defense Forces to be dispatched to regions where a country closely allied with Japan is under attack by another nation. If such a situation is defined as an existential crisis for Japan, the U.S.-Japan alliance would give the United States a reason to intervene automatically, which has intensified China's opposition.

China regards Taiwan as part of its territory under the "One China" principle. Therefore, China consistently maintains that the Taiwan issue is a domestic matter and that foreign involvement constitutes interference in its internal affairs. In this context, Prime Minister Takaiichi's remarks were perceived as infringing on China's core interests, prompting an immediate and forceful response from China.

Government-Led and Civilian-Driven Pressure... Unusually Rapid Pace

AFP Yonhap News

Hanilryeong is not an official policy term of the Chinese government. Like Hallyeong, it originated as an expression used by civilians online. In practice, however, the process involves the Chinese government setting guidelines that civilians then follow, making it, in effect, a government-led measure.

The Chinese government first issued a recommendation for its citizens to refrain from visiting or studying in Japan. Although nominally a recommendation, in China, such government advice is essentially equivalent to a directive. Subsequently, in the private sector, 500,000 airline tickets to Japan were canceled, and fan meetings for Japanese idols as well as anime releases were also called off one after another.

When the Chinese government moved to ban imports of Japanese seafood, a boycott movement emerged among civilians, urging people not to eat Japanese sashimi or sushi. This pattern-where the government sets the direction and the private sector follows-mirrors what happened during Hallyeong. No country believes the Chinese government's explanations that "this is not an official government position" or that "it is civilian-led."

Hallyeong initially began with restrictions on cultural exchanges, then quickly extended to tourism and travel, and finally erected barriers to trade. There are growing expectations that Japan will likely follow a similar sequence, making it difficult to respond effectively.

The Japanese tourism industry is already bracing for a major blow. Last year, approximately 7 million Chinese tourists visited Japan, making them the second-largest group after Koreans (8.8 million). This year, by September, the number had already surpassed 7.5 million, and a record high was anticipated. However, Hanilryeong has abruptly halted this trend. Considering the cancellations of flights, accommodations, and Chinese consumer spending, Japan is estimated to face losses of at least 2.2 trillion yen, or about 21 trillion won.

However, this may only be the beginning. Should Hanilryeong intensify to include restrictions on key trade goods or a halt to rare earth exports, the damages are expected to increase exponentially. The speed and severity of China's measures have exceeded expectations. With such swift and powerful pressure coming so soon after Prime Minister Takaiichi took office, some analysts suggest that China may be trying to "discipline" the new Japanese government.

Japan Not Retaliating... Using the Situation to Rally Conservatives?

UPI Yonhap News

In contrast, the Japanese government has not announced any immediate retaliatory measures against China's pressure. Instead, it has maintained a calm and watchful stance. Meanwhile, government ministers and conservative politicians have appeared on television, making statements that stoke anti-China sentiment.

Recently, during a meeting between Liu Jinsong, Director-General of the Asian Affairs Department at China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Kanai Masahaki, Director-General at Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kanai was seen bowing his head. When Chinese state media simultaneously released footage of this scene, anti-China sentiment in Japan intensified even further. In Japan, this was criticized as "humiliating diplomacy," and some right-wing groups have gone so far as to call for a complete break with China.

Within the Liberal Democratic Party and the conservative political camp, there is a calculation that anti-China sentiment is not necessarily a crisis. Currently, there is talk of an early general election in Japan, and if an election is held, consolidating the conservative base will be crucial. In this context, anti-China sentiment is seen as a politically useful card.

Analysts suggest that, in the short term, Japan will refrain from retaliatory measures and instead focus on fueling anti-China sentiment, but in the long term, it will need to consider its response strategy. Since Japan is also highly dependent on China, if China blocks exports of key goods or raw materials, Japan may once again be forced to adopt a more conciliatory stance.

South Korea: Between Short-Term Gains and Long-Term Concerns

From South Korea's perspective, Hanilryeong appears to present an opportunity in the short term. With over 7 million Chinese tourists visiting Japan annually, even if a portion of them redirect their travel to Korea, a significant tourism boom is expected. In fact, the market is already responding, with travel and tourism-related stocks on the rise. There is growing optimism that if even half of these tourists come to Korea, it could generate more than 10 trillion won in economic benefits.

However, there are also concerns that the situation cannot be viewed as purely favorable in the medium to long term. The essence of Hanilryeong lies in the military conflict between the United States and China. Just as Hallyeong in 2017 stemmed from the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system, South Korea could also see Hallyeong reinstated at any time depending on the state of U.S.-China relations.

China's intentions go beyond merely pressuring Japan. Analysts suggest that China aims to send a clear message to neighboring Asian countries: "Align yourselves firmly with China." China has been making massive investments in Central and Southeast Asia through the Belt and Road Initiative, and it appears to be using this situation to demonstrate to these countries the consequences of opposing China.

In particular, by showing Japan being unilaterally targeted while the United States does not actively defend it, China is seeking to impress upon Asian nations the dangers of antagonizing China. In this context, there are warnings that South Korea could also face a renewed Hallyeong if U.S.-China diplomatic tensions escalate.

The current Hanilryeong situation cannot be viewed merely as an opportunity for increased tourism to South Korea. It is one aspect of the U.S.-China power struggle and a warning that South Korea could face similar pressure at any time. It is now time for Korea to prepare flexible and strategic responses, taking into account complex factors such as trade with China, supply chain issues, and security alliances.