[Bitcoin Now] "Bitcoin Enters Bearish Phase"

IM Securities analyzed on November 21 that Bitcoin has entered a bearish phase.

Recently, Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 mark and dropped to the $86,000 level. Yang Hyunkyung, a researcher at IM Securities, stated, "There is a growing narrative about entering a correction phase from the perspective of the Bitcoin halving cycle," adding, "Typically, virtual assets reach new highs and then enter a correction phase within one year to one year and six months after a Bitcoin halving."

She continued, "This pattern has been observed consistently after the first, second, and third halving events. Given that the fourth halving occurred on April 20, it can be interpreted that the virtual asset market has now entered a correction phase."

She cited the liquidity crunch in the short-term money market caused by the aftermath of the U.S. government shutdown as a reason for the decline. She explained, "The prolonged U.S. federal government shutdown led to a reduction in short-term market liquidity. In fact, the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance surged to $940 billion in October, effectively absorbing short-term liquidity from the market."

She also emphasized that the strengthening of the U.S. dollar has intensified risk aversion toward risky assets. She said, "The liquidity crunch in the short-term money market led to increased demand for dollars, which in turn created upward pressure on the dollar. The problem is that in a strong dollar environment, the virtual asset market faces structurally stronger bearish pressure. As a result of the strong dollar, investors have increasingly moved to reduce risk in their portfolios, and this has spread selling pressure not only to major virtual assets but also broadly to altcoins."

She further analyzed that diminished expectations for a December rate cut also contributed to the weakness in virtual assets. She noted, "According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has dropped significantly to 33.7% from 98.9% a month ago. In addition, the global liquidity proxy, which had been on the rise in the first half of the year, has recently stalled, which is another factor limiting the upside for virtual assets."