After China's Advisory Against Travel to Japan,
490,000 Flight Tickets Canceled
Cancellation Rates Soar Above 80%
Amid escalating diplomatic tensions between China and Japan, cancellations of airline tickets to Japan by Chinese carriers have surged significantly. Following the Chinese government's advisory urging its citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan, the number of canceled tickets has approached 490,000, with cancellation rates exceeding 80% on certain dates.
On November 18, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that "Chinese airlines canceled approximately 491,000 tickets to Japan over the three days since November 15, accounting for about 32% of all bookings on popular routes."
Aviation analyst Li Hanming, citing data from a survey of Chinese airlines, told SCMP that the cancellation rate spiked as 82.14% of flights on November 16 and 75.6% of flights on November 17 were canceled. Li Hanming stated, "The number of ticket cancellations on November 16 was 27 times higher than new bookings," adding, "It appears that safety concerns have had an absolute impact on travel decisions."
He explained that this scale of mass cancellations is the first since the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020. As COVID-19 spread toward the end of the Lunar New Year holiday in 2020, air travel demand in China plummeted. According to an analysis by the World Economic Forum (WEF), as of February 17, 2020, international flight operations had dropped by 71% compared to the previous year.
The rapid deterioration in China-Japan relations began on November 7, when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi remarked that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces could be deployed in the event of a contingency in the Taiwan Strait. In response, on November 14, the Chinese government advised its citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan, after which Chinese airlines began offering full refunds for flights to Japan. Seven major airlines, including the three state-owned carriers-Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines-announced that they would allow free refunds and changes for tickets to Japan booked through December 31.
According to Singapore-based travel analytics firm China Trading Desk, bookings for flights departing Japan have dropped by more than 30% in the coming weeks, with the decline being particularly pronounced for schedules before January next year.
Li Hanming explained that the routes from Shanghai, China to Tokyo, Japan and from Shanghai, China to Osaka, Japan were especially hard hit. He estimated that 70% of all canceled tickets were round-trip, and the financial loss from refunds could reach several billion yuan.
John Grant, chief analyst at UK-based aviation information provider OAG, analyzed that "Chinese airlines hold an absolute advantage in the China-Japan aviation market, so the impact of this situation is likely to be concentrated on the Chinese side." He also predicted that changes such as reduced route capacity could be seen in the coming weeks. However, he added, "The Japanese side appears to be making efforts to calm the situation with China, so it may end up being a short-term issue."
According to Japanese government statistics, Chinese nationals accounted for approximately 7.49 million of the foreign tourists visiting Japan from January to September this year, the highest among all nationalities. The Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) reported that more than 6.7 million Chinese visited Japan from January to August this year, a 46% increase from 4.6 million during the same period last year.
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