Who Will Win Next Year's ETF Investment Strategy? Focus on "AI" and "Value-Up" [Practical Asset Management]

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As global stock markets continue their unprecedented bull run, the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market is also heating up. The size of the Korean ETF market, which surpassed 100 trillion won in 2023, has surged to 270 trillion won this year, and is expected to break through the 300 trillion won mark next year, setting a record for the highest growth ever.

Many experts predict that this rally will continue into next year, unanimously agreeing that ETF investment remains the most effective strategy. For novice investors, ETFs offer the simplest and safest way to participate in a rising market, while for experienced investors, they provide a powerful defensive line to secure basic returns while hedging against volatility.

The ETF Market Is Evolving

This year, the ETF market has achieved not only quantitative growth but also a qualitative evolution in management strategies. In particular, "active ETFs," which account for 87 trillion won or 30% of the domestic market, have become mainstream. They have established themselves as a new tool that seeks excess returns through proactive management, moving beyond the traditional ETF paradigm of simply tracking an index.

Additionally, theme-based ETFs focusing on big tech, shipbuilding, defense, and nuclear power have shown strong performance, reflecting a trend where investors are strategically diversifying their capital toward future growth sectors.

AI Value Chain: An Essential Investment for Next Year

What will be the key factors determining the success of investment strategies next year? Experts emphasize the importance of focusing on mega-trends such as the artificial intelligence (AI) value chain, the U.S.-driven investment cycle, and domestic policy momentum.

AI is undoubtedly at the forefront of the market. Thanks to large-scale infrastructure investments by big tech companies this year, the global AI industry is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 30% through 2032. Samsung Securities researchers Jeon Kyun, Lim Eunhye, and Han Sujin explained, "Ultimately, AI will be applied across all industries, boosting productivity," and added, "Rather than worrying about an AI bubble, investors should be more concerned about the risks of missing out on AI growth."

From an investment perspective, sectors essential to AI operation-such as semiconductors, power infrastructure to meet surging electricity demand, as well as software and robotics-are considered promising. Among domestic ETFs, leading products include "TIGER Semiconductor TOP10," "Kodex Semiconductor," "Kodex US AI Power Core Infrastructure," and "Kodex US Humanoid Robot."

For investors seeking to capture the growth of the AI industry in a single investment, ETFs designed to focus on domestic and overseas technology stocks are also worth considering. Key options include "TIGER US Tech TOP10 INDXX," "ACE US Big Tech TOP7Plus," and "Kodex US Big Tech 10 (H)." Also noteworthy are "ACE Tesla Value Chain Active" and "ACE Nvidia Value Chain Active," which allow for simultaneous investment in technology stocks and the value chain.

Among U.S.-listed ETFs, "Invesco QQQ (QQQ)," which tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, "Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK)," and the semiconductor-focused "VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)" are highlighted. Meanwhile, China's AI industry is also rapidly catching up with the United States under government support. Attention should also be paid to China tech-focused ETFs such as "TIGER China Hang Seng Tech" and "Kodex China Shenzhen ChiNext (Synthetic)."

Investment Cycle Expansion and Value-Up

Next year, above all, is "the time to invest." With the second Donald Trump administration expected to accelerate the "Make America Great Again (MAGA)" policy to revive domestic manufacturing, investments from Korea, Japan, and the European Union (EU) into the U.S. are set to increase. Industrial, utility, and infrastructure themes that will directly benefit from rising U.S. demand are gaining attention. Recommended options include the "Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI)," "Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLU)," and "Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE)."

Riding on increased U.S. demand and global mega-trends, Korean shipbuilding, power equipment, and nuclear power themes are also evaluated as promising sectors. Representative beneficiaries include "SOL Shipbuilding TOP3 Plus," "TIGER Shipbuilding TOP10," "Kodex AI Power Core Equipment," and "HANARO Nuclear Power iSelect."

In addition, domestic value-up policy momentum products-such as holding company, corporate governance improvement, and group stock ETFs-are presented as effective investment strategies for next year, as expectations for multiple re-ratings grow in line with the expansion of shareholder value enhancement. Kang Songcheol, a researcher at Eugene Investment & Securities, explained, "Since the introduction of the 'Value-Up Program' last year, more companies have voluntarily disclosed plans to enhance corporate value, and amendments to the Commercial Act regarding treasury shares are also being pursued," adding, "Interest will continue in companies capable of increasing shareholder returns." Leading products include "Kodex Korea Value-Up," composed of companies with outstanding shareholder return efforts and high capital efficiency, and "PLUS Treasury Share Buyback High Dividend," which consists of companies with high total shareholder return rates, including treasury share buybacks.