U.S. Experts: "Trump-Kim Jong-un Meeting at APEC Unlikely, But Cannot Be Ruled Out"

CSIS and Brookings Institution Podcast Discussion

Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea. Photo by Yonhap News via Korean Central Television

Experts on the Korean Peninsula at U.S. think tanks have suggested that a surprise meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump, who is scheduled to visit South Korea later this month for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un cannot be ruled out. However, they added the caveat that even if a North Korea-U.S. summit does take place, the focus is likely to be on symbolism rather than substantive discussions.

Sydney Seiler, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said during a podcast hosted by the institute on the 21st (local time) that if the meeting between President Trump and Chairman Kim were to be limited to a simple greeting such as "Hello, nice to see you again," then "it is possible." The discussion also featured Victor Cha, Korea Chair at CSIS, and Andrew Yeo, Korea Chair at the Brookings Institution.

Seiler added, "Even if the meeting does not take place, it would not be because the positions of North Korea and the United States on denuclearization are completely opposed," and explained, "If it is just a one-off meeting, the differences over denuclearization as a goal could be overcome."

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at CSIS, noted, "Given the issues the United States has to deal with these days, even a brief meeting would not necessarily be a bad thing in the bigger picture," and observed that an informal meeting between the two leaders is possible "as a way to gauge the situation and maintain contact."

Cha also remarked, "It is not at all unimaginable for Trump to say in Washington D.C. that '(North Korean) denuclearization is our goal and policy,' and then go to Panmunjom and say 'Kim Jong-un has nuclear weapons.'"

Andrew Yeo, Korea Chair at the Brookings Institution, also said, "Given President Trump's (one-night, two-day) schedule, the likelihood is very low," but added, "There is still a slight possibility. After all, it is Trump."

At a Brookings Institution press breakfast on APEC held the same day, he expressed a similar view, stating, "It seems unlikely that President Trump and Chairman Kim will meet on the sidelines of APEC," but added, "While I am skeptical about the possibility of a meeting, I would not rule it out entirely."

He described as "interesting" both the CNN report that U.S. officials have been discussing the meeting privately, and the suspension of special tours to Panmunjom by the United Nations Command and the Ministry of Unification during the APEC summit. "Of course, all of this points to the possibility that President Trump could meet with Chairman Kim," he said.

He went on to say, "It is also uncertain whether Chairman Kim's side wants a meeting at this point," and analyzed, "He has already met with Putin and Xi Jinping, and according to Chinese sources, President Xi recommended a meeting with Trump to Chairman Kim, but it is unclear whether Kim is ready."

Regarding South Korea's role in a potential North Korea-U.S. summit, he said, "President Lee Jaemyung would try to make it happen if possible," but pointed out, "For President Lee to be recognized as a meaningful figure to Chairman Kim, it would have to go through President Trump or the United States would need to play a mediating role. This is the opposite of what happened in 2018, when the Moon Jae-in administration connected Trump and Kim Jong-un."

However, the South Korean government maintains that the possibility of a North Korea-U.S. summit taking place on the sidelines of the APEC summit is low. Ambassador Kang Kyungwha to the United States stated at a National Assembly Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee audit of the South Korean Embassy in New York on the 17th, "As of now, there is no such possibility," and added, "the United States has proposed unconditional dialogue, and North Korea has shown some signs of interest, but nothing related to APEC has materialized yet."