Liberal Democratic Party and Japan Innovation Party Formally Agree on Coalition... Takaichi Virtually Confirmed as Prime Minister

With Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the second-largest opposition party, the Japan Innovation Party, formally agreeing to form a coalition government on October 20, it is expected that Japan will see its first female prime minister take office.

On October 20, Sanae Takaichi, President of the Liberal Democratic Party, and Hirofumi Yoshimura, leader of the Japan Innovation Party, met in Tokyo and signed an agreement to establish a coalition government.

President Takaichi is expected to become Japan's first female prime minister following the prime ministerial nomination election to be held on October 21.

After Komeito, which had maintained a cooperative relationship with the Liberal Democratic Party for 26 years since 1999, withdrew from the coalition on October 10, the Liberal Democratic Party sought to form a new coalition government. Ten days later, the party decided to ally with the Japan Innovation Party, which has a hardline conservative stance.

Lawmakers from the Japan Innovation Party plan to vote for President Takaichi in the prime ministerial nomination election, in line with the agreement.

The prime ministerial nomination election is conducted separately by the House of Representatives (lower house) and the House of Councillors (upper house). If the results differ, the outcome of the House of Representatives vote takes precedence.

If a candidate secures a majority in the first round of voting in the House of Representatives, their election is effectively confirmed. If not, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. In the runoff, securing a majority is not required; the candidate with the most votes is elected as prime minister.

The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party hold 196 and 35 seats respectively in the House of Representatives, totaling 231 seats-two short of the 233 needed for a majority. If the Speaker, who is from the Liberal Democratic Party, and minor conservative opposition parties vote for President Takaichi, the result could be decided in the first round.

Meanwhile, discussions on unifying opposition candidates have been suspended, making President Takaichi's election as prime minister virtually certain.