[Pol-Pol News] Next Year's Local Elections: How Will the Big Two Fare?... Seoul and Busan Mayoral Races Neck and Neck

Democratic Party 39.9% vs People Power Party 31.4% in Seoul
People Power Party 38.9% vs Democratic Party 34.4% in Busan
All major candidate matchups remain within the margin of error

Regarding the 9th nationwide local elections scheduled for June 3 next year, Seoul and Busan each showed a lead for the Democratic Party of Korea and the People Power Party, respectively, in terms of party approval ratings. However, hypothetical matchups between major candidates revealed a closely contested race.

According to a public opinion poll released by Media Tomato on the 16th, the Democratic Party of Korea in Seoul led with a 39.9% approval rating, ahead of the People Power Party (31.4%) by a margin outside the margin of error. The survey was conducted via wireless virtual number ARS from October 13 to 14 among 1,001 Seoul residents aged 18 and older, with a response rate of 5.4%, a 95% confidence level, and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points. In Busan, the People Power Party recorded a 38.9% approval rating, while the Democratic Party of Korea stood at 34.4%, which falls within the margin of error. The Busan survey targeted 1,003 residents aged 18 and older from October 13 to 14, with a response rate of 6.0%, a 95% confidence level, and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.

The hypothetical matchups between major candidates in Seoul were extremely close. In a contest between Prime Minister Kim Minseok and Seoul Mayor Oh Sehoon, support rates were 44.2% and 40.6%, respectively, with Prime Minister Kim holding a slight lead within the margin of error. Conversely, in a matchup between Presidential Chief of Staff Kang Hoonshik and Mayor Oh, support stood at 40.6% and 42.3%, respectively, with Mayor Oh slightly ahead within the margin of error. Cho Kuk, the Emergency Response Committee Chairperson of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, also showed a tight race with Mayor Oh, recording 41.7% and 43.2%, respectively.

In Busan, Minister of Oceans and Fisheries Jeon Jaesoo (40.1%) and Mayor Park Hyungjoon (39.4%) were in a competitive race within the margin of error. However, former Democratic Party lawmaker Choi Inho (28.7%) trailed Mayor Park (44.7%) by a margin exceeding the margin of error in a hypothetical contest. Similarly, Emergency Response Committee Chairperson Cho Kuk (35.2%) also lagged behind Mayor Park (44.6%) by a margin beyond the margin of error. A key variable is the relatively low public support for the re-election of both Mayor Oh and Mayor Park, at 37.2% and 36.5%, respectively.

For more details regarding the public opinion poll, please refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.