Economic Data Gap Amid U.S. Shutdown... Market Focuses on Powell's 'Rate Clues'

Bond, Foreign Exchange, and Virtual Asset Investors Focused on Powell's Remarks

Jerome Powell, Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Chair Powell is scheduled to deliver the keynote speech at 12:20 PM local time on the 14th (1:20 AM Korean time on the 15th) at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting.

With Jerome Powell, Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), scheduled to deliver a keynote speech on the 14th (local time), market attention is focused on whether clues about U.S. policy rates will be revealed. The impact of the U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed the release of key economic indicators, along with the intensifying U.S.-China trade war, has added even greater weight to Chair Powell's remarks.

Chair Powell is scheduled to deliver the keynote speech on "Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy" at 12:20 PM on the 14th (1:20 AM Korean time on the 15th) at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting in Philadelphia, United States.

This speech is seen as an opportunity to gauge the direction of the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate policy amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points (1 basis point = 0.01 percentage point) at both its October and December meetings. The CME FedWatch tool reflects probabilities of 99% and 94% for these respective rate cuts.

Bloomberg News reported that, with U.S. economic data releases being rare this week, bond investors will be focusing on Chair Powell's speech and any additional tariff measures.

The foreign exchange market is also paying close attention to the speech. According to MarketWatch, U.S. foreign exchange risk advisory firm Clarity FX stated in a report, "With major U.S. economic indicators lacking due to the shutdown, market attention is focused on Chair Powell's NABE speech and policy signals from the Fed's Beige Book." The report also added, "At the same time, U.S.-China tensions, the results of Japan's prime ministerial election, and political instability in Europe are acting as key variables in the foreign exchange market."

Virtual asset investors are also closely watching Chair Powell's remarks. CryptoNews reported that experts believe Chair Powell's speech could either calm the market or, conversely, trigger another sharp decline.

Bitcoin plunged below $105,000 last week as the U.S.-China trade war intensified. At one point on the 11th, it even fell below $102,000. After President Trump made remarks that appeared to ease tensions, speculation about a "taco trade" emerged, helping Bitcoin recover part of its losses.

On-chain analytics firm Santiment pointed out that the recent sharp decline was not solely due to the U.S.-China trade dispute. While some individual investors attributed the correction to the trade war, the analysis indicates that internal structural factors, such as excessive leverage and an overaccumulation of long positions, also played a significant role.