Likely to Be Released Before End-of-Month FOMC Meeting
Essential for Social Security Benefit Calculation
According to Bloomberg News on October 9 (local time), the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has ordered employees who were on unpaid leave due to the government shutdown (temporary suspension of work) to return to work in preparation for the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI). As a result, the likelihood has increased that the September CPI, which was expected to be delayed due to the shutdown, will be released at the end of this month.
According to a Department of Labor official, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) instructed the BLS to allow employees to return so that the September CPI report can be published by the end of this month. The report was originally scheduled for release on the 15th of this month.
However, there had been speculation that the release schedule would be delayed because the BLS had suspended all work, including data collection and statistical production, due to the federal government shutdown.
In fact, according to the Department of Labor's emergency operations plan, regular statistical releases by the BLS are suspended during a shutdown, and the website is not updated.
However, as the BLS has begun preparing the report, there is now a high possibility that the September CPI will be released before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for the 28th to 29th of this month. The CPI is a key inflation indicator that measures the rate of price increases by tracking the average price changes of goods and services purchased by consumers. The Federal Reserve refers to the CPI as an inflation indicator when making interest rate decisions. The New York Times predicted, "It is almost certain to be released before the Fed meeting at the end of this month."
Previously, after the shutdown, the U.S. government delayed the release of various economic indicators, including the September non-farm payroll report. The move to prepare the CPI is reportedly due to the calculation of Social Security, the U.S. national pension. The Social Security Administration determines the next year's cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for beneficiaries based on third-quarter CPI data, and this announcement typically occurs immediately after the September CPI is released.
The Department of Labor stated, "If the CPI report scheduled for October is delayed, it could also impact the COLA announcement schedule."
The last time a BLS statistical release such as the CPI was delayed due to a shutdown was in 2013, when the CPI release was published two weeks later than originally scheduled.
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
