Will Trump Really Win the Nobel Prize After Gaza Ceasefire? Betting Sites Put Odds at 6%

Polymarket Betting Site Sees Odds Rise After Ceasefire Agreement
Experts Say "International Disruption Makes This Year's Win Unlikely"

Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas reached an agreement on the first phase of a ceasefire on October 8 (local time). As a result, the probability of President Donald Trump of the United States winning the Nobel Peace Prize, as predicted by foreign betting sites, has slightly increased.

According to Yonhap News, as of the night of October 8, the US betting site Polymarket estimated President Trump's chances of winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize at 6%. President Trump's probability peaked at 4.9% on October 5, then fell to 2.7% on October 7, but began to rise again following the Gaza ceasefire agreement.

President Trump has been mediating a ceasefire between the two sides, including announcing the "Gaza Peace Initiative" on September 29, and has publicly expressed his intention to win the Nobel Prize. The winner of this year's Nobel Peace Prize will be announced in Oslo, Norway, on October 10, two days after the announcement of the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement.

Donald Trump, President of the United States. Photo by Yonhap News

Throughout this year, President Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to win the Peace Prize, claiming that "seven wars around the world have ended due to his mediation." At the meeting of all military commanders on September 30, he remarked, "They will give the prize to someone who did nothing," adding, "That is a great insult to our country."

The White House told Newsweek, "Leaders from several countries, including Pakistan and Cambodia, have called for President Trump to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize," and added, "They are direct beneficiaries of President Trump's peace efforts, which gives legitimacy to their calls for him to receive the prize."

However, based on Polymarket's probabilities, President Trump's chances still do not place him among the main contenders. Leading the field are the Emergency Response Room operating in war-torn Sudan (29%), Doctors Without Borders (13%), and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Experts also view President Trump's chances of winning this year as low. The main reasons are that the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are still ongoing, and since the launch of his second administration, he has caused disruption to the international order through tariff wars, cuts to foreign aid, denial of the climate crisis, and criticism of the United Nations.

In addition, since the mediation of the Gaza ceasefire took place just before the announcement of the winner, there are observations that it will be difficult for him to be included in this year's official review.