[New York Stock Exchange] All Major Indexes Rise Despite U.S. Government Shutdown Fears... Dow Hits Record High

Investors Shake Off Shutdown Fears
"Past Shutdowns Have Never Lasted More Than Two Weeks"
Republicans and Democrats Remain Deadlocked on Temporary Budget Bill

On September 30 (local time), all three major indexes on the New York Stock Exchange closed higher. Despite concerns over a potential federal government shutdown (Shut Down·temporary suspension of operations), investor sentiment remained largely resilient, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new all-time high.

On this day at the New York Stock Exchange, the blue-chip-focused Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,397.89, up 81.82 points (0.18%) from the previous trading day, setting a new record high. The S&P 500 Index, which tracks large-cap stocks, rose 27.25 points (0.41%) to 6,688.46, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index climbed 68.855 points (0.31%) to 22,660.009.

As a result, the S&P 500 Index gained over 3% in September. Considering that the average September decline over the past five years was 4.2%, this was a strong performance. During the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2%, and the Nasdaq Index increased by about 5%.

Although the market was weak in early trading due to shutdown concerns, investors largely shook off their anxieties. As the 2025 fiscal year for the federal government ended on this day, the government would enter a shutdown starting October 1 if Congress failed to reach an agreement on a temporary spending bill.

President Donald Trump commented on the possibility of a shutdown, saying, "Nothing is inevitable, but the likelihood (of a shutdown) is high." He met with bipartisan leaders the previous day regarding this issue but failed to reach an agreement. The confrontation between the Republican and Democratic parties is intensifying. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, in a CNBC interview, expressed skepticism about avoiding a shutdown and blamed Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. In response, Leader Jeffries told CNBC, "If the government shuts down, it will be their decision."

However, the market was not significantly affected. This is because, in past cases, shutdowns rarely lasted more than two weeks, so the impact is considered limited. Some concerns have been raised that if President Trump implements large-scale layoffs of federal employees during a shutdown, as he has indicated, a prolonged shutdown could have a significant economic impact. There are also cautious views about a repeat of the U.S. credit rating downgrade by Moody's, the international credit rating agency, which occurred in May.

Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said, "The market widely anticipates a shutdown in Washington, so investors are largely taking a wait-and-see approach," but added, "If the situation lasts more than two weeks, people will start to worry."

If a shutdown occurs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the Department of Labor would suspend operations, delaying the release of key economic indicators. In particular, the September employment report scheduled for October 3 is considered a crucial factor for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in October, so the delay could increase uncertainty in monetary policy. The market expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by 51,000 in September, an improvement from 22,000 in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%.

There is also speculation that a delay in the release of the September employment report could be a positive for the market. Peter Corey, co-founder and chief market strategist at Fave Finance, commented on the possibility that the September employment report may not be released, saying, "The August employment increase of 22,000 could be revised to a negative number," and "Since the statistics are already at a dangerously low level, a delayed release could actually be favorable for the market."

U.S. Treasury yields were mixed within a narrow range. The 10-year Treasury yield, the global benchmark for bond rates, rose 1 basis point (1bp=0.01 percentage point) from the previous session to 4.15%, while the 2-year yield, which is sensitive to monetary policy, fell 1 basis point to 3.61%.

By stock, data center operator CoreWeave soared 11.7% on news that it had signed a computing power supply contract worth up to $14.2 billion with Meta, the parent company of Facebook. Satellite TV company EchoStar jumped 3.68% after announcing it would sell wireless spectrum to Verizon. ExxonMobil fell 1.29% after announcing plans to cut 2,000 jobs worldwide. Nvidia rose 2.6%, and Micron climbed 2.09%.