Third-Quarter Earnings Season Arrives... Three Promising Stocks to Watch

Operating Profit of KOSPI-Listed Companies Expected to Rise 18% Year-on-Year
Consistent Earnings Growth Seen in Samsung Heavy Industries, APR, and Hansol Chemical

After the holiday period, the domestic stock market is entering the full-fledged third-quarter earnings season. According to the financial investment industry, the consensus for the combined operating profit of KOSPI-listed companies in the third quarter of this year stands at 76 trillion won, which is expected to represent an increase of about 18% compared to the same period last year. In particular, the consensus has been revised upward by 1.9% over the past month, mainly due to improved earnings at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

With improved profit momentum across the IT sector, including semiconductors, it is unlikely that third-quarter results will fall significantly short of market expectations. However, excluding semiconductors, the operating profit consensus remains at around 55 trillion won, showing a stagnant trend, and there are concerns that some industries may see downward revisions of around 5-10%. Taking this into account, the growth rate excluding semiconductors is expected to be limited to 9-14%.

Experts believe that "reduced earnings volatility" will emerge as a key feature of this earnings season. This is because the proportion of net profit by sector within the KOSPI has shifted recently, with the contribution from industries sensitive to economic cycles-such as oil refining, chemicals, steel, and automobiles-declining, while the weight of sectors that combine growth and stability-such as shipbuilding, defense, power equipment, software, and healthcare-has increased.

Additionally, abundant cash flow is also supporting the earnings stability of domestic companies. Unlike in the past, when there was a significant gap between profits and cash flow, both are currently increasing simultaneously, making it highly unlikely that earnings volatility will expand in the short term.

Yum Younggan, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, analyzed, "A strategy focused on sectors or companies with positive profit momentum is a favorable choice," adding, "Moreover, companies with low earnings volatility and strong cash flow are positive from a valuation re-rating perspective."

In particular, among companies that have shown continued earnings growth in the third quarter and are projected to do so through 2026, and that have improved free cash flow, those with low earnings volatility include Samsung Heavy Industries, APR, and Hansol Chemical.

Samsung Heavy Industries is expected to secure new growth momentum based on expectations of participating in MASGA (U.S. Navy and commercial shipbuilding and related projects). According to the industry, while competing shipbuilders have already strengthened their connections to the U.S. market through new naval ship projects, Samsung Heavy Industries has relatively lacked U.S.-related business. Therefore, MASGA is considered a key driver that can narrow the valuation gap with competitors and trigger a full-fledged re-rating.

Kang Kyungtae, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, emphasized, "Samsung Heavy Industries is the only shipbuilder whose current valuation can be justified by its core business value alone," adding, "Now is a buying opportunity before its valuation is fully re-evaluated through MASGA participation."

APR has established itself as a global beauty and tech brand and continues to show rapid growth. For the third quarter of this year, APR's consolidated sales are estimated at around 377 billion won, up 116% from the same period last year and 15% higher than the previous quarter. Operating profit is projected to surge by 230% year-on-year to 90 billion won.

In particular, the company is expected to maintain strong growth, with overseas sales accounting for as much as 81%. By region, U.S. sales are projected at 139.1 billion won, up 251% from the same period last year; Japan at 48.2 billion won, up 217%; Greater China up 23%; and other regions including Europe and the Middle East (including B2B) at 87.6 billion won, up 318%.

Jung Jiyoon, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, "Tariff impacts are estimated to be around 4.5 billion won in costs based on U.S. sales, but the impact is expected to be limited," adding, "Ahead of the peak season in the fourth quarter, the direct sales indicators for the Medicube brand in the U.S. remain strong, and the expansion into offline channels in the second half will serve as an additional growth driver."

Hansol Chemical is also expected to maintain stable growth in the third quarter. Hansol Chemical's consolidated sales for the third quarter are estimated at 222.8 billion won, up 17% from the same period last year, with operating profit projected to rise 29% to 47.6 billion won.

The company's greatest strength is its abundant profit momentum. In 2025, new supply of High-K precursors and the acquisition of new battery binder customers are expected to serve as key growth drivers. In 2026, growth in its core business is expected to accelerate further, driven by the recovery of Samsung Electronics' foundry utilization rates and the operation of new DRAM fabs.

Kim Donggwan, a researcher at Meritz Securities, explained, "Negotiations are underway to secure new customers for battery binders, and if these materialize, further upward revisions to the consensus can be expected," adding, "In addition, long-term growth product development-such as silicon anode materials (expected to begin mass production in the second half of 2026) and solid electrolytes (expected in 2028)-is progressing smoothly."