"North Korea Accelerates Conventional Military Build-Up... Unlikely to Offset South's Superiority in Short Term"

Although North Korea is accelerating the modernization of its conventional military capabilities, experts predict that it will be difficult for the North to reach a level that could offset the superiority of South Korea’s armed forces in the short term. Analysts point out that North Korea’s push to modernize its conventional forces is largely driven by external objectives, such as demonstrating its utility and strengthening its bargaining position in negotiations with the United States.

According to the Asan Institute for Policy Studies on September 18, Deputy Director Cha Doohyun made these observations in a recently published report titled "The Recent Construction of North Korea’s Conventional Military Power and Its Impact on the East Asian Security Structure." Since the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea in 2021, North Korea has been focusing on modernizing its conventional military assets. Notable examples include the Kim Kunok Hero tactical nuclear attack submarine in 2023, the new Cheonma-2 tank in 2024, the launch of the 5,000-ton multi-purpose destroyer Choi Hyun-class (Choi Hyun and Kang Gunho) this year, and the construction site of a nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine (strategic nuclear submarine).

Deputy Director Cha stated, "North Korea’s new tanks, submarines, and destroyers have not had their performance verified, and it is still unclear whether they are equipped with key systems." He added, "Even if close cooperation between North Korea and Russia continues, it is expected to take more than five years for North Korea’s conventional forces to achieve meaningful modernization."