[Good Morning Stock Market] Sideways KOSPI... "Focus on U.S. Economic Indicators"

The KOSPI is moving sideways around the 3,200 level, unable to find clear direction. On September 8, the domestic stock market is expected to continue its rotation trading pattern, with no significant negative or positive factors present.

On the 5th (local time), all major indices in the New York stock market closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 45,400.86, down 220.43 points from the previous trading day. The S&P 500 fell by 20.58 points to 6,481.50, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 7.31 points to 21,700.39.

Weak employment data had an impact. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls in August increased by 22,000 compared to the previous month, far below the market expectation of 75,000. The unemployment rate also reached 4.3%, the highest level in four years. Kim Ji-won, a researcher at KB Securities, said, "Concerns about the economy due to the employment shock and expectations for an interest rate cut were mixed, causing the three major indices to hit record highs early in the session before turning downward by the close."

The financial investment industry explains that the possibility of a rate cut in September is increasing due to weak economic indicators. Kim Seong-no, a researcher at BNK Investment & Securities, said, "At the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the possibility of two rate cuts within the year was left open, but the overall tone was somewhat hawkish (favoring monetary tightening). The biggest difference now is that the weakness in the labor market could be the main reason for a rate cut at the September FOMC."

Last week (September 1-5), the KOSPI fluctuated between the 3,100 and 3,200 levels. The intraday low was 3,135.02 and the high was 3,214.64, indicating limited volatility. As in the previous month, the index is hovering around the 3,200 level. This week, the KOSPI is expected to be influenced by U.S. economic indicators. On the 10th, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August will be released, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August on the 11th.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "In the aftermath of the August employment shock, the August inflation results are expected to change the stock market's sensitivity to the September FOMC. If both the August CPI and PPI fall below consensus (the average of securities firms' forecasts), the market is likely to remain at least neutral until the September FOMC. Otherwise, a wait-and-see approach is likely to emerge."

Given that the simultaneous expiration of futures and options contracts is also approaching on the 11th, experts advise closely monitoring the market. Han Ji-young emphasized, "It is appropriate to prepare for increased market volatility during the inflation events. In the domestic market, the scheduled simultaneous expiration of futures and options contracts is also expected to make directional bets on the market more difficult."

Heo Jae-hwan, a researcher at Eugene Investment & Securities, said, "Stock market trading volume, which reached 21 trillion won in June and July, has decreased to the 13 to 14 trillion won range. There are currently no major negative factors that could trigger a sharp decline in stock prices, so rather than failing to rise, prices are simply not falling." He added, "Weak rotation within sectors is expected to continue."