Korea’s Renewed Push for CPTPP Membership Faces Fukushima Seafood Dilemma [Why&Next]

Japan Effectively Serves as "Gatekeeper" Due to Unanimous Consent Rule
High Likelihood of Demands to Lift Ban on Fukushima Seafood Imports
Balancing Economic Opportunities and Political-Diplomatic Costs

On the 2nd, a press conference condemning the ocean discharge of nuclear-contaminated water and urging the suspension of Japanese seafood imports is being held in front of the Admiral Yi Sun-sin statue at Gwanghwamun Square in Seoul. Photo by Jo Yongjun jun21@

There are growing expectations that if the government decides to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the biggest variable will be whether Japan gives its consent. New membership in the CPTPP requires unanimous approval from all 11 existing member countries, and Japan effectively serves as the 'gatekeeper' for the agreement. In particular, there are concerns that Korea's restrictions on imports of seafood from Fukushima could become a stumbling block at the negotiating table.

According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on September 4, the Korean government aims to expand its trade network in the Asia-Pacific region and diversify supply chains in response to the reorganization of the global trade order by pursuing CPTPP membership. The CPTPP is a massive market, accounting for 13% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 15% of global trade volume. Even without the United States, it is still considered the world’s most open trade agreement, characterized by advanced trade rules and a high level of market openness.

The economic benefits of joining the CPTPP are clear. If Korea joins, it will be able to enjoy the elimination of tariffs on about 95% of goods traded among member countries and significantly improve market access to countries such as Mexico, with which it does not have a free trade agreement (FTA). This would broaden the export base for key industries such as semiconductors, automobiles, and batteries, while also helping to ease Korea’s trade dependence on China.

The biggest obstacle to joining the CPTPP is Japan’s position. The agreement operates on the principle of unanimity, so if even one country objects, accession is impossible. Japan has the largest economy among the countries where the agreement is in force and has effectively acted as the gatekeeper for new members, consistently demanding the removal of food safety regulations from applicant countries during the process.

In fact, at the G7 summit in 2022, then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and pledged not to require certificates for radioactive substance testing for 23 items, including mushrooms, from nine prefectures near Fukushima. As a result, the UK lifted its import restrictions on food from Fukushima. Following this move, the UK’s CPTPP accession proceeded smoothly, and by the end of March 2023, member countries officially approved the UK's membership. Accepting Japan’s demands was essentially the key to successful accession.

Taiwan, which is currently seeking CPTPP membership, has also declared a complete lifting of its import restrictions on food from Fukushima in an effort to gain Japan’s approval.

In contrast, Korea continues to ban imports of seafood produced in eight prefectures since the Fukushima nuclear accident. If Japan persistently raises this issue during the CPTPP membership review, the negotiations are likely to face significant difficulties. Coincidentally, when Foreign Minister Cho Hyun met with Japanese Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi last month, Japan is reported to have officially requested the lifting of restrictions on imports of seafood from Fukushima.

This puts the Korean government in a dilemma. If it accepts Japan’s demands and lifts the import restrictions, it will likely face fierce backlash from domestic public opinion. With the controversy over the ocean discharge of contaminated water from the nuclear plant still ongoing, concerns over consumer safety cannot be ignored. On the other hand, if Korea pushes ahead with its membership application while maintaining the restrictions and is rejected by Japan, it could suffer a diplomatic embarrassment as an advanced nation.

Another major challenge is the opening of the agricultural market. The CPTPP requires a much higher level of openness in agriculture than existing free trade agreements. The key issue is how to protect sensitive items such as rice and livestock products. The domestic agricultural sector is strongly opposed to CPTPP membership, warning that it could bring a 'second wave of FTA shocks.' During the Korea-US FTA, massive fiscal resources were already spent on compensating for agricultural losses and supporting business closures, and there are even greater concerns about the broader market opening under the CPTPP.

How Korea addresses the dual challenges of the Japan variable and agricultural market opening will determine the success of its trade strategy. For now, the government is expected to moderate the pace of its CPTPP accession efforts while continuing dialogue with Japan. An official from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said, "We have not yet set a specific timeline for submitting the application, and we plan to consult fully with domestic stakeholders. We will work closely with Japan and other member countries to minimize any negative impact on Korean businesses."