Taiwan Joins U.S. in Warning: "China to Possess 1,000 Nuclear Warheads by 2030"

China Times Cites Taiwan Defense Ministry Report on China's Nuclear Expansion and Military Threats

The Dongfeng-41, China's latest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), was unveiled at the 2019 military parade. According to Taiwan media including China Times on the 1st, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense predicted in its latest report that China's nuclear warhead stockpile will reach 1,000 by 2030. Yonhap News Agency

A report by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense, released amid China's continued military demonstrations targeting Taiwan, predicts that China will possess more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. At the end of last year, the U.S. Department of Defense made a similar projection.

According to Taiwan media, including China Times, on September 1, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense submitted the "2025 Chinese Military Power Report" to the Legislative Yuan (Taiwan's parliament) on August 29, which included these findings.

In this report, the Ministry of National Defense assessed that China already possesses more than 600 operational nuclear warheads and projected that the number will exceed 1,000 by 2030, with all warheads fully deployed for combat readiness by then.

This aligns with earlier projections from the U.S. government. At the end of last year, the U.S. political outlet Politico cited the latest Department of Defense report submitted to Congress, which predicted that China would increase its nuclear warhead stockpile to 1,000 by 2030. It was estimated that China added at least 100 nuclear warheads in 2024 alone.

The report also evaluated that China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, will expand its threat to the Western Pacific alongside the Liaoning (the first carrier) and the Shandong (the second carrier). The Fujian completed its eighth trial voyage recently, following its maiden trial on May 1, 2024.

In particular, the report noted that China is strengthening the capabilities of its Dongfeng (DF) series intercontinental ballistic missiles, which can reach Guam, a U.S. territory in the Western Pacific, as well as the U.S. mainland.

The report stated that the Chinese government plans to retire older short- and medium-range missiles, such as the Dongfeng-11 (range of 300 km), Dongfeng-15 (range of 600-900 km), and Dongfeng-21 (range of 1,700 km), and replace them with newer models like the Dongfeng-17 (range of 2,000 km) and Dongfeng-26 (range of 4,000 km). It is also reported that research and development are underway to enhance the precision strike capabilities of improved versions of the Dongfeng-31 ballistic missile, which has a range of up to 7,000 km.

Meanwhile, China is expected to showcase its military strength by unveiling Dongfeng series long-range missiles and unmanned submarines at the military parade marking the 80th anniversary of Victory Day at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on September 3. The Dongfeng-41 was unveiled at the 2019 parade. In addition, China's announcement of plans to reveal "star-class weapons" this year has drawn attention to whether a sixth-generation stealth fighter and other advanced weaponry will make an appearance.