"My Son Can't Be Lost": Male Students Disappear from Graduating Classes...Ukraine Finally Lifts Exit Restrictions [Current Affairs Show]

Mass Exodus of Male Students Under 18
Concerns Over Postwar Population Recovery and Declining Birth Rate
Shift Toward Expanding Volunteer Recruitment Through Incentives

■ Broadcast: Asia Economy 'Soh Jongseop's Current Affairs Show'

■ Host: Political Specialist Soh Jongseop

■ Director: Producer Ma Yena

■ Guest: Reporter Lee Hyunwoo

It has recently become difficult to find male students in high school graduation photos in Ukraine. This situation has arisen as parents rush to illegally send their young sons abroad before they are conscripted. This is being interpreted as a symbolic incident that highlights the harsh reality of Ukraine's severe conscription crisis. Amidst this, the Ukrainian government has recently lifted exit restrictions for young men aged 18 to 22, drawing international attention.

Allowing Young Men to Leave Despite Troop Shortages...A Desperate Measure

Reuters Yonhap News

Since the outbreak of the war, Ukraine has imposed exit restrictions on all men aged 18 to 60. Until 2024, compulsory conscription applied to those aged 27 and above, but starting in 2025, the age was lowered to 25, expanding the conscription pool. However, contrary to expectations, these compulsory conscription policies have led to serious side effects.

The most significant problem has been the mass illegal departure of young men. From 2022 to the end of 2024, as many as 50,000 men were caught attempting to leave the country illegally, and it is estimated that over 1 million men actually made it to European Union countries. This figure accounts for more than 2% of Ukraine's total population.

What is particularly concerning is the large-scale departure of underage male students before they turn 18. As more parents send their children abroad preemptively to avoid conscription, some schools have ended up with no male students left in their graduating classes. This phenomenon has become more than just a matter of individual choice; it has emerged as a demographic issue affecting Ukrainian society as a whole.

Ultimately, it appears that the Ukrainian government had no choice but to ease exit restrictions for young men aged 18 to 22 in order to curb this mass exodus. The government has essentially acknowledged that blocking departures and relying solely on forced conscription has backfired.

Widespread Corruption and 'White Ticket' Deals...Collapse of Trust in Conscription 

New recruits training at the Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia regional unit. Photo by AP Yonhap News

The main reason why not only young people but also their parents are resorting to illegal departures to avoid conscription is the extensive corruption within the conscription system. Bribes for exemption, known as 'white tickets,' are openly traded, with prices reaching as high as $8,000 (about 11 million won). This is equivalent to several years of the average Ukrainian salary, but wealthier families are willing to pay to avoid sending their sons to the deadly frontlines.

Ukraine's conscription system includes a provision exempting families with disabled members. Taking advantage of this law, bribery has become rampant, with all manner of illegal acts-such as forging family records or arranging short-term adoptions-being committed as long as bribes are paid. These fraudulent activities have provoked strong backlash among ordinary citizens and have significantly eroded trust in the entire conscription system.

Regional military offices, in an effort to meet their conscription quotas, have even reissued draft notices to those who have already completed their service, and in some cases, have conscripted wounded soldiers suffering from psychological trauma. Such excessive conscription pressure has led to cases of suicide and other extreme actions, turning the issue into a serious social problem.

Meanwhile, as the war drags on, the Ukrainian government is also concerned about boosting the postwar birth rate. Ukraine's birth rate is already at 0.98, the lowest in Europe, and the combined number of deaths and injuries from the war is estimated to exceed 500,000. If casualties continue to rise, there are growing fears that population recovery after the war will be extremely difficult.

Strengthening Recruitment of Volunteers Through Incentives...Implications for Korea

AFP Yonhap News

In the end, the Ukrainian government has shifted its policy from forced conscription to introducing a wide range of incentive programs. These include a compensation payment of approximately 30 million won for one year of service, interest-free mortgage loans, tuition support, extra points for civil service exams, and scholarships-a comprehensive benefits package. This approach appears to be inspired by Russia's considerable success in recruiting voluntary enlistees.

However, it remains uncertain whether this strategy will succeed. Given the dangers of the battlefield, it is questionable whether even generous rewards will be enough to attract sufficient volunteers. Moreover, these incentive policies require massive financial resources, raising doubts about whether war-torn Ukraine can sustain them.

Ukraine's conscription crisis offers important lessons for South Korea as well. South Korea is also facing a steady decline in the conscription-age population due to low birth rates, and the size of its military force has been reduced to 450,000. Although the monthly pay for enlisted soldiers was recently raised to around 2 million won for sergeants, the salaries of non-commissioned officers and officers must also be increased accordingly, leading to a sharp rise in defense spending.

Furthermore, even the United States is struggling to secure enough volunteers under its all-volunteer system, suggesting that simply increasing incentives has its limits. Ultimately, a multifaceted approach is needed, combining incentive policies with measures to address low birth rates, consideration of conscription for women, and reducing reliance on manpower through the adoption of advanced weapons systems. In the long term, strengthening military capabilities through advanced technologies such as robot soldiers and unmanned systems may be the solution.