Zaluzhnyi's Rising Popularity at Home and Abroad
Intense Presidential Race Expected Immediately After Ceasefire
As the Russia-Ukraine war nears its end, international attention is intensifying on the upcoming Ukrainian presidential election. The United States and Western governments have already begun reaching out to Ukraine's leading presidential contenders. Currently, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom, is the most frequently mentioned rival to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Zaluzhnyi Being Urged to Run for President... Growing Speculation About His Candidacy
In February, a meeting between King Charles III of the United Kingdom (left) and Valeriy Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK (right). Photo by Reuters Yonhap News
The Guardian reported on August 25 (local time), citing US government sources, that "the team of US Vice President JD Vance attempted to contact Ambassador Zaluzhnyi through various diplomatic channels in March." The report added, "Although the US government described this as a routine interaction, it appears the real intention was to encourage or pressure Ambassador Zaluzhnyi, who has emerged as a leading candidate to succeed President Zelensky, to enter politics."
It is known that the US government began searching for a new Ukrainian leader in early March after President Zelensky had a heated dispute with US President Donald Trump during a summit. US media outlets such as CNN have also reported that close associates of President Trump have met with or attempted to contact not only Ambassador Zaluzhnyi but also leaders of Ukraine's opposition parties.
In particular, Ambassador Zaluzhnyi is enjoying high levels of support, having been called a national hero for his significant achievements in Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia while serving as Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces until February last year. According to a poll conducted by the Ukrainian polling agency SOCIS from February 3 to 9 of this year, Zaluzhnyi led with a support rate of 37.4% among potential presidential candidates, more than 15% higher than President Zelensky, who stood at 21.9%.
However, Zaluzhnyi has not yet officially announced his entry into politics. Although political figures from both Ukraine and Western countries have offered to support him and encouraged him to enter politics, he is reported to have declined all such proposals.
President Zelensky's camp is also wary of the possibility of his candidacy. The Guardian reported, "Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky's chief of staff and closest aide, recently met with Ambassador Zaluzhnyi and invited him to join President Zelensky's re-election campaign, but Zaluzhnyi refused." The report added, "It is expected that Zaluzhnyi will make his final decision immediately before the election."
Ukraine Likely to Hold Presidential Election Immediately After Ceasefire... Who Will Succeed Zelensky?
The heightened interest in Ukraine's next president stems from the high likelihood that the presidential election will be held immediately after a ceasefire. President Zelensky's term officially ended in May last year. However, due to the ongoing war and the continuation of martial law, the presidential election has been repeatedly postponed, resulting in the automatic extension of President Zelensky's tenure.
According to current Ukrainian election law, elections delayed by martial law must be held within 60 days for parliamentary elections and within 90 days for the presidential election after martial law is lifted. For this reason, if a ceasefire agreement is reached and the war ends, Ukraine is expected to immediately enter a presidential election phase.
Several figures have already been mentioned as strong contenders in Ukraine's next presidential election. President Zelensky is seeking re-election, while other major candidates include Ambassador Zaluzhnyi, current Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, and former President Petro Poroshenko. Among them, President Zelensky and Ambassador Zaluzhnyi, who have support rates in the 20-30% range or higher, have formed a two-way race since last year.
While President Zelensky enjoyed nearly 90% approval at the beginning of the war, his support dropped below 50% earlier this year and has since remained in the 20-30% range. The prolonged war has led to declining support, and recent corruption scandals involving his close associates have further eroded his popularity. Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Chernyshov, Justice Minister Olha Stefanishyna, former Deputy Chief of Staff Andriy Smyrnov, and former Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Kylo Kymoshenko-all close aides to President Zelensky-are currently under investigation for corruption charges.
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