President Lee Arrives in Tokyo, Begins Overseas Tour...Korea-Japan Summit Held After 67 Days (Comprehensive)

Face-to-Face with Prime Minister Ishiba Two Months After G7
Significance of Resuming Full-Fledged Shuttle Diplomacy
Discussing Groundbreaking Cooperation Amid Rapidly Changing Global Order
A Second "Kim Dae-jung?Obuchi Declaration" Unlikely
Su

President Lee Jaemyung arrived at Haneda Airport in Japan on the morning of the 23rd, officially beginning his overseas visit. After a meeting with the Korean community in Japan, President Lee will hold a summit with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in Tokyo. This marks their first meeting in 67 days since they last met at the G7 Summit in June. President Lee plans to use this occasion to signal the start of full-fledged "shuttle diplomacy," maintaining a "two-track" approach that separates historical issues from future-oriented relations. On the following day, the 25th, he is scheduled to hold a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, where a wide range of challenging issues in trade and security are expected to be discussed.

At a press briefing held at the Yongsan presidential office on the previous day (the 22nd), National Security Advisor Wi Sunglak said, "Visiting Japan and the United States back-to-back is a rare and new attempt in our summit diplomacy," adding, "We aim to place trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the United States, and Japan at the center, based on the Korea-U.S. alliance and Korea-Japan partnership, and further develop relations with China and Russia on this foundation."

Yonhap News Agency

Shuttle Diplomacy Resumes in Earnest with Korea-Japan Summit...Low Likelihood of Major Agreement on Historical Issues

At the Korea-Japan summit on this day, the main agenda items are expected to include strategic communication amid rapidly changing global dynamics, cooperation on changes in the U.S.-led trade order, and practical collaboration in supply chains and advanced industries. President Lee intends to emphasize that Japan is a neighboring country with a similar market and a partner in cooperation, using this opportunity to share new strategies and response measures from the perspective of national interest and practical benefit.

In an interview with Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun released on the 21st, President Lee stated, "Korea and Japan need to establish a groundbreaking economic cooperation relationship," adding, "It is time to seriously discuss establishing a solid economic cooperation framework among Pacific Rim countries, including those in East Asia." Accordingly, discussions may include South Korea's possible accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the development of Arctic shipping routes, and ways to cooperate with the U.S., Japan, China, Russia, and even North Korea.

Regarding historical issues, the general view is that the likelihood of a "major agreement" comparable to the "Kim Dae-jung-Obuchi Declaration" is low. While the two leaders plan to issue a joint statement, it is analyzed that, given the working-level nature of the meeting, it will be difficult to include dramatic language regarding historical issues in this agreement. Advisor Wi also said, "It is unlikely that a declaration of major significance similar to the Kim Dae-jung-Obuchi Declaration will be made between Korea and Japan this time," explaining, "The preparation period was short, and this summit mainly serves as the first step in resuming shuttle diplomacy."

Nevertheless, Advisor Wi left room for optimism, saying, "Korea-Japan relations are progressing more smoothly than expected," and "If the momentum of positive cycles grows, it will help resolve difficult issues."

All-Out Effort in Washington, D.C....'Trump-Style' Trade and Security Challenges

President Lee will arrive in Washington, D.C. on the 24th local time and hold his first Korea-U.S. summit with President Trump at the White House on the 25th. In an unusual move, all three top aides-Advisor Wi Sunglak, Policy Chief Kim Yongbeom, and Chief of Staff Kang Hunsik-will accompany him. Foreign Minister Cho Hyun and Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Kim Jeonggwan have already traveled to the U.S. for discussions with their counterparts. The summit aims to stabilize Korea-U.S. economic and trade relations, modernize the security alliance, and explore new areas of cooperation. Advisor Wi said, "The Korea-U.S. alliance currently faces new challenges on both economic/trade and security fronts."

On the trade front, the key is to solidify at the summit level the follow-up implementation of the tariff agreement reached at the end of July. The U.S. government has resumed pressure to open Korea's agricultural and livestock markets, which seemed to have been settled in previous negotiations, and may have requested a more concrete "roadmap" regarding Korea-U.S. shipbuilding cooperation, including the MASGA project and U.S.-bound investment funds. If working-level discussions between the two sides, which will continue until just before the summit, do not proceed smoothly, instability could increase, contrary to the Korean government's expectations. Regarding the pressure to open the agricultural and livestock markets, Advisor Wi said, "The agricultural and livestock issue has been one of the topics in Korea-U.S. trade negotiations. Discussions are ongoing, but there has been no particular progress. The U.S. is indeed raising the issue, but we are responding according to our existing position."

The core of the security agenda is "alliance modernization." This concept encompasses the operation of U.S. Forces Korea, increases in Korea's defense budget, and the transfer of wartime operational control, with the Korean government aiming to modernize the alliance in a way that strengthens the combined defense posture without heightening regional tensions. Advisor Wi stated, "With North Korea's nuclear and missile threats and North Korea-Russia cooperation increasing regional instability, we intend to strengthen the alliance while enhancing our military capabilities."

Regarding the "strategic flexibility" of U.S. Forces Korea, Advisor Wi denied reports that specific scenarios, such as involvement in Taiwan, are being discussed. He said, "Strategic flexibility is being discussed within the broad framework of the 2006 agreement, and we are not negotiating details such as U.S. Forces Korea's involvement in Taiwan." On the transfer of wartime operational control, he said, "We are committed to pursuing the transfer, but it will not be a deeply discussed agenda item at this summit. Cost issues may arise, but our direction remains unchanged." On increasing the defense budget, he added, "It is being discussed in the context of alliance modernization, but it is too early to mention specific figures."

President Lee to Pursue 'Three-Stage Denuclearization' Roadmap and Amendment of Nuclear Agreement

President Lee's roadmap for North Korea's nuclear issue-consisting of "stage one: freeze of nuclear and missile programs, stage two: reduction, and stage three: denuclearization"-is likely to be discussed at the summit as a phased approach. Advisor Wi said, "There is a general consensus between Korea and the U.S. on the basic approach. While there may be differences regarding the timing and specifics of what is exchanged with North Korea, the overall approach is similar."

Efforts are also expected to amend the Korea-U.S. Nuclear Agreement to secure policy autonomy for Korea in uranium enrichment and spent nuclear fuel reprocessing. If amended, the agreement could ease restrictions on uranium enrichment and open the way for spent nuclear fuel reprocessing in Korea. Advisor Wi said, "We intend to make progress on this issue at the summit."

However, the adoption of a joint statement remains uncertain. Advisor Wi said, "The agenda and key issues for the summit between Korea and the U.S. are being organized, and while it is true that the two sides are negotiating the wording, the Trump administration is more unpredictable than other governments, so it is difficult to make any definitive statements."