Continuing Claims Reach 1.972 Million,
Highest Level in Three Years and Nine Months
Last week, the number of new unemployment claims in the United States exceeded market expectations, reaching the highest level in two months. This adds yet another sign of a recent slowdown in the labor market.
According to the U.S. Department of Labor on August 21 (local time), new unemployment claims for the week of August 10 to 16 totaled 235,000. This figure is an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s 224,000, surpassing the market forecast of 226,000 by 9,000 claims.
Continuing unemployment claims, as of the week of August 3 to 9, stood at 1,972,000, up 30,000 from the previous week’s 1,942,000. Not only did this exceed the forecast of 1,960,000, but it also marked the highest level in three years and nine months since November 2021. The increase in long-term unemployment claimants indicates that job seekers are finding it increasingly difficult to secure new employment.
Following the previously released July employment report, which showed a much larger-than-expected decline in nonfarm payrolls, a series of indicators continue to support the view of a labor market slowdown. Some analysts suggest that former President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies are having an impact.
However, the Federal Reserve sees the risk of rising inflation as greater than that of a slowdown in employment. The minutes of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), released the previous day, stated, “Participants emphasized both the risks of rising inflation and declining employment,” adding, “The majority judged that rising inflation posed the greater risk of the two.” However, the minutes also revealed internal disagreements, noting, “Some participants viewed the downside risk to employment as the most significant threat.”
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