Reverse Convention Effect at People Power Party Convention: First-Day Voter Turnout Hits All-Time High... Here's Why

37.51% Turnout on First Day Sets New Record
Unexpectedly High Participation Spurs Leadership Candidates to Recalculate
Will Final Turnout Surpass 50%?

The People Power Party’s national convention, which had lost its so-called "convention effect," recorded an unexpectedly all-time high voter turnout on the first day of voting. Analysts attribute the surge in turnout to the intensified competition between pro-impeachment and anti-impeachment candidates, as well as the crisis situation both inside and outside the party. If this trend continues through to the final turnout, there is growing interest in whether a pro-impeachment candidate could make a surprise surge at the last minute.

According to the election management committee for the People Power Party’s leadership and Supreme Council election on August 21, the voter turnout on the first day of the August 22 convention was tallied at 37.51%. This is 2.79 percentage points higher than the previous record for highest first-day turnout, set at the March 8, 2023 convention. Compared to the first day of the July 23, 2023 convention, when former party leader Han Donghoon was elected, this year’s turnout is 7.53 percentage points higher.

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Political circles have expressed surprise at the turnout, which exceeded expectations. Interest in the convention had been low, as the rivalry between pro- and anti-impeachment factions among party leadership contenders was repeating the pattern of the last presidential election. Throughout the convention, controversies surrounding Jeon Hangil, a conservative YouTuber and former Korean history lecturer, were highlighted, causing the party’s approval rating to fall to a record low and even resulting in a reverse convention effect. On top of this, the special prosecutor’s attempt to search party headquarters further diverted attention. This is why most forecasts had predicted a low turnout.

There are various interpretations regarding the higher-than-expected turnout. First, the intensified competition, with party leadership contenders split into pro- and anti-impeachment camps and calling on each other to leave the party, is seen as a factor driving interest. Additionally, some believe that party members, sensing a crisis both inside and outside the party, were motivated to act. A People Power Party official explained, "Externally, issues such as the pardon of Cho Kuk have increased aversion to the Lee Jaemyung administration and the Democratic Party, which appears to have galvanized party sentiment toward unity."

Candidates are offering their own favorable interpretations of the high turnout. Pro-impeachment candidates Ahn Cheolsoo and Cho Kyungtae believe that rational conservatives hoping for innovation turned out to vote. Representative Cho said on CBS Radio that day, "Reasonable party members believe it will be difficult to win next year’s local elections if we join hands with far-right forces," adding, "It seems that party members who want innovation came out to vote in large numbers."

On the other hand, the anti-impeachment camp believes that the high turnout is due to the participation of the hardline conservative base, which makes up the majority of party members. In this case, it is expected to benefit Kim Moonsoo, former Minister of Employment and Labor, who is a leading candidate for party leadership. The camp of Representative Jang Donghyuk also predicted a favorable situation for Jang, stating, "When turnout is high, political newcomers often stand out."

Whether the final turnout will exceed 50% on the last day of voting is also drawing attention. However, since there tends to be a concentration of votes on the first day, most expect that the current lead of the two anti-impeachment candidates will remain unchanged. At the same time, if the high turnout allows a pro-impeachment candidate to take second place, an upset cannot be ruled out. If no candidate wins a majority at the August 22 convention, a runoff between the top two candidates will be held on August 24-25. Political commentator Park Sangbyung predicted, "A high turnout does not necessarily mean there will be a majority winner in the first round," adding, "However, if a pro-impeachment candidate takes second place, an unexpected result could occur in the runoff."