[Asia Report] Timor-Leste's ASEAN Accession and South Korea's Choice

Potential Variable: Accession of a Democratic State
Emerging Value as an Untapped Market and Geopolitical Asset
Seizing Opportunities Through Historical Connections

Southeast Asia has long been centered around the ten member states of ASEAN. However, this structure is expected to change following the Kuala Lumpur Summit in October. Timor-Leste is set to join as the 11th full member. Since gaining independence in 2002, Timor-Leste has aspired to join ASEAN, officially applying in 2011, obtaining observer status in 2022, and finalizing its accession roadmap in 2023.

Since then, it has only been a matter of timing, and the final approval is expected to be confirmed in Malaysia at the end of October this year. This marks a historic moment as all of Southeast Asia will be united under a single institutional framework. Timor-Leste's accession is expected to have significant impacts on ASEAN's internal balance, its relations with external powers, and even South Korea's diplomatic strategy.

Ripple Effects

Above all, the political heterogeneity within ASEAN will increase. Timor-Leste, a small underdeveloped country at the eastern tip of Indonesia, is one of the few nations in the region to have maintained a democratic system since independence. This stands in stark contrast to Myanmar, which has descended into chaos after a military coup, and to the authoritarian tendencies of Cambodia and Laos. Since ASEAN operates on a consensus basis, the inclusion of young and democratic Timor-Leste could become a new source of conflict. In particular, if Timor-Leste takes a strong stance on the Myanmar crisis, internal divisions within ASEAN may become more pronounced.

Economically, both challenges and opportunities arise. Timor-Leste is one of the poorest countries, accounting for less than 0.1% of ASEAN's total GDP. Its road, electricity, and communication infrastructure are underdeveloped, and the national budget relies heavily on oil and gas. This could become a destabilizing factor for ASEAN's ongoing economic integration. On the other hand, this situation may be seen as an opportunity by external partners. Japan, Australia, and China are already actively engaged in development cooperation with Timor-Leste, and competition for investment in this "untapped market" is likely to intensify. ASEAN thus faces both the challenge of widening internal disparities and the benefit of attracting external capital.

From a security perspective, Timor-Leste also holds considerable geopolitical significance. Located at the intersection of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, adjacent to Australia, it becomes a new stage for US-China strategic rivalry. If Timor-Leste, within the ASEAN framework, emphasizes "compliance with international law," it could align with Vietnam and the Philippines over South China Sea issues, provoking opposition from China. At the same time, Australia and the United States may secure a bridgehead for linking ASEAN with their Indo-Pacific strategies through Timor-Leste. This serves as a variable testing ASEAN's "strategic autonomy" and provides an opportunity for ASEAN to expand its strategic horizon to the South Pacific. Especially as maritime order competition in the South Pacific intensifies, Timor-Leste's presence is likely to act as a catalyst for reshaping the region's security landscape.

Opportunities for South Korea

South Korea and Timor-Leste, perhaps unexpectedly, share a strong historical connection. The "Sangnoksu Unit," dispatched as UN peacekeepers immediately after Timor-Leste's independence in 1999, is regarded as a representative example of South Korea's international contributions. In Timor-Leste, South Korea is remembered as a country that provided help in times of crisis. Moreover, South Korea also overcame authoritarianism and achieved democracy, sharing a common narrative of "democratic transition" with Timor-Leste. In other words, Timor-Leste is a natural partner for South Korea to pursue value-based diplomacy.

There are also economic opportunities. Gas field development is a prime example. With a high dependence on natural gas imports, South Korea could diversify its LNG supply routes through Timor-Leste, and globally competitive Korean companies in offshore plants and LNG carriers could find new business opportunities. For infrastructure construction such as roads, electricity, and ports, South Korea's development cooperation experience is highly relevant.

ODA and private investment that contribute to narrowing intra-ASEAN disparities are also important. Considering Timor-Leste's young population structure, cooperation in education, culture, and workforce exchange are also promising areas. If South Korea actively engages with Timor-Leste, this will not only enhance bilateral relations but could also serve as a testing ground for upgrading South Korea's overall diplomacy toward ASEAN.

In summary, Timor-Leste's accession to ASEAN may appear to be the inclusion of a small country, but its significance is far from minor. Timor-Leste stands at the intersection of tensions between democracy and authoritarianism, development disparities, and external power involvement. In particular, its strategic location connecting the South Pacific and Indian Oceans could shift the geopolitical center of gravity for all of ASEAN. For South Korea, Timor-Leste is not just a new member, but a partner combining memories of past peacekeeping activities and future opportunities in energy and maritime cooperation. It is precisely here that South Korean diplomacy can find new possibilities.

Choi Changwon, former professor at the National University of Timor-Leste and recent compiler of the Timor-Leste-Korean Dictionary (Tetum language), commented, "Timor-Leste's accession to ASEAN is not merely a formality but a historic turning point," adding, "Now, South Korea must move beyond being an aid donor to becoming a collaborative partner."

If South Korea turns away from Timor-Leste, it will miss yet another opportunity. Conversely, if it pays attention and deepens its relationship now, South Korea can establish a new axis of cooperation in democracy, development, and security within ASEAN. We must not forget that the accession of the small nation of Timor-Leste could become a 'great opportunity' for South Korean diplomacy.

Jung Hojae, Secretary General, Asia Vision Forum